Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel has major implications for US president Joe Biden’s efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This attack also has the potential to reshape the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Unlike previous presidents, Biden has not made direct efforts to foster peace talks, instead focusing on de-escalating tensions in the region while keeping the path to a two-state solution open. The formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have been seen as a significant achievement.
White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, recently claimed that the US approach to the Middle East has brought historic calm. However, the recent Hamas assault, which is the worst attack since 1948, challenges this claim. Tensions between Israel and the Palestinian territories have been quietly rising, especially in the occupied West Bank. Despite US efforts to convene talks and calm tensions, the violence has continued. The surprise attack by Hamas has thrown a wrench into the ongoing efforts to improve relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The Biden administration officials have stated that it is too early to determine how this attack will affect their normalization efforts. They remain committed to brokering diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as they believe it is the best path to improve the lives of those in the region. US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, emphasized that Hamas’s path of violence and terror offers nothing to the Palestinian people.
Before the attack, US officials were working with Israel and Saudi Arabia to determine the Palestinians’ demands and Israel’s willingness to offer concessions. However, Hamas, who rules Gaza, was not involved in these discussions, and their role as a spoiler was underestimated. The future of the Israeli-Saudi agreement depends on the duration of the fighting, Israel’s response, and the involvement of other players in the conflict.
The motivations behind the attack and Iran’s involvement are still being assessed by US officials. The US has been trying to decrease tensions with Iran through confidence-building measures. However, Iran remains Hamas’s main backer, and its involvement in the attacks is being investigated. The US and Israel are also attempting to prevent Iran-backed Hizbollah from joining the conflict in Lebanon, as that could significantly escalate the situation.
Saudi Arabia responded promptly to the attacks but did not directly condemn them. The statement from Riyadh reflects their frustration with Israel and their concern about the situation escalating due to Israel’s actions. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia have limited room to maneuver when it comes to the Palestinian issue. Israel faces mounting death toll and the unresolved question of hostages, while Saudi Arabia must consider the sentiments of the Arab street and its hosting of millions of Muslim pilgrims each year.
Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, which normalized relations with Israel under the Trump administration, may find themselves in a similar situation to the cold peace that has prevailed between Israel and Egypt and Jordan. Even before the recent attack, the UAE was growing wary of Netanyahu’s government and concerned about the violence in the West Bank.
In conclusion, the Hamas attack has significant implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The future of the agreement depends on various factors, including the duration of the fighting, Israel’s response, and the involvement of other players. The motivations behind the attack and Iran’s involvement are still being assessed. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia have limited room to maneuver when it comes to the Palestinian issue.
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