Central banks’ monetary policy decisions are becoming more varied.

Dollar, yuan, yen, and euro notes.

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From hawkish pauses to rate hikes and dovish tones, the world’s biggest central banks last week demonstrated diverse approaches to monetary policy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets by hiking rates and unveiling a worsening inflation outlook, leading investors to anticipate more rate increases in the euro zone.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve decided to pause rate hikes, and China’s central bank lowered its key medium-term lending rates to stimulate the economy. The Bank of Japan, despite inflation being above target, maintained its ultra-loose policy.

“These different approaches not only indicate a new divergence in monetary policy but also highlight that the global economy is now a collection of distinct cycles rather than a synchronized entity,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Germany, in an email to CNBC.

In Europe, inflation has somewhat declined but remains above the ECB’s target. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates after strong labor data.

Although the Fed began hiking rates before the ECB, it decided to take a break in June, with plans for two more rate increases later in the year.

On the other hand, China is experiencing a slowdown in economic recovery, prompting policymakers to implement support measures to boost activity.

As for Japan, which has struggled with deflation for years, the central bank foresees a decrease in inflation later this year and has opted against normalizing policy just yet.

“Each central bank focuses on solving their own economic challenges, taking into account changes in financial conditions imposed from abroad,” explained Erik Nielsen, group chief economics advisor at UniCredit, in an email.

Market Impact

The euro rose to a 15-year high against the Japanese yen on Friday due to the divergent monetary policy decisions. The euro also surpassed the $1.09 threshold following the ECB’s hawkish tone.

In bond markets, the yield on the German 2-year bond reached a 3-month high Friday, reflecting expectations of the ECB continuing its current approach in the short term.

“It is logical to see this divergence emerge. In the past, there was still room for major central banks to catch up, but given the different stages of the economic cycle across jurisdictions, more nuanced decisions will now be made,” said Konstantin Veit, a portfolio manager at PIMCO, on CNBC’s Street Signs Europe.

“This will create opportunities for investors.”

European Central Bank more hawkish than expected, strategist says

During a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde was asked to compare her team’s decision with the Federal Reserve’s pause.

“We are not considering a pause,” she replied. “Have we finished the journey? No, we are not at the destination,” she added, hinting at a potential rate hike in July.

For some economists, it is only a matter of time before the ECB finds itself in a similar position to the Fed.

“The Fed is leading the ECB as the U.S. economy is ahead of the eurozone economy by a few quarters. This means that, at the latest after the September meeting, the ECB will also face the debate on whether or not to pause,” said Brzeski.

Reference

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