The ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive is an operation that even the most skilled military would prefer to avoid. Last year, Ukraine astounded Western experts with its ability to defend against Russian invaders and reclaim lost territory, revealing flaws in Russia’s strategy, logistics, and military leadership. However, Russia still occupies a portion of Ukraine, and now Ukraine is attempting to go on the offensive against a military that has spent months constructing defenses while maintaining a significant arsenal of modern weaponry. Initiating a counteroffensive under these circumstances would be risky for the United States or any other NATO power, and the Ukrainian military lacks the technological and training advantages typically enjoyed by NATO members.
In many ways, Ukraine’s objectives are unprecedented. During World War II, the successful offensive sides, whether Anglo-American or Red Army forces, had control of the air. This allowed them to employ air power to protect their ground troops as they advanced and to weaken the enemy armies they would face. However, Ukraine is not afforded this luxury. The airspace over the entire Ukrainian battlefield is fiercely contested. Russia possesses a larger air force, and their fixed-wing aircraft surpass Ukraine’s technologically (although the Russians do not always utilize theirs as effectively as the Ukrainians). Additionally, Russia can deploy numerous drones for intelligence-gathering and direct action against Ukrainian forces. Russian attack helicopters, such as the Ka52s, have demonstrated their capability to destroy Ukrainian armored vehicles.
Another challenge is that the Russians can also employ ground-based systems against the Ukrainians. They have a sizable arsenal of artillery, rocket-launching systems, handheld anti-vehicle weapons, and extensive minefields obstructing Ukrainian movement. If both armies were evenly matched in intelligence, motivation, training, and operational capabilities, the Ukrainians would have only a slight chance of success.
Despite these obstacles, the early stages of the counteroffensive indicate that Ukraine possesses the capacity to achieve more than what current conditions suggest. However, success may require more time than anticipated. Immediate breakthroughs through Russian lines should not be expected. Images have circulated depicting disabled Ukrainian vehicles, including a German-designed Leopard 2 tank and several U.S.-built Bradley fighting vehicles. These represent some of the most advanced armored vehicles in Ukraine’s arsenal. However, they were incapacitated by various systems that Ukraine will encounter as it advances. Russian minefields, for instance, have constrained Ukrainian operations, forcing them to concentrate their forces more than desired and contributing to losses at the start of the counteroffensive. Russian artillery fire and attack helicopters have also blunted the Ukrainian assault in other areas.
Due to the diverse array of Russian defensive firepower impeding the counteroffensive, Ukrainian advances have been limited thus far, gaining a few miles here and there. After Russian forces withdrew from the vicinity of Kyiv in late March 2022 and reinforced defensive lines, the only major breakthrough occurred in September 2022 when the Ukrainians liberated a significant portion of land near Kharkiv. In this instance, Ukrainian vehicles swiftly advanced many miles per day due to the sparse concentration of Russian forces. Once the Ukrainians breached the Russian front, there was little resistance.
However, it is unlikely that Ukraine will repeat this feat. Over the past six months, Russia has been on the offensive, albeit progressing at a slow pace. From January to May, Russian forces around the city of Bakhmut managed to advance a mere five miles, while experiencing substantial casualties estimated at around 100,000. Compared to this, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, slowly pushing the Russians back across multiple locations, appears more successful.
Nevertheless, Ukraine aims to achieve much more and will likely have to settle for modest gains as it gradually weakens Russian forces to facilitate greater advancements later. Without control of the air and faced with formidable Russian defensive firepower, the Ukrainians must gradually wear down the enemy’s ground troops to compensate for Russia’s aerial advantage. President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged this when he stated that Ukrainians were “destroying” Russian forces in the south and east, emphasizing that this process would take time.
Rather than rushing forward, the Ukrainians have intensified their efforts to target Russian forces behind the lines. Recent probing attacks have prompted the Russians to relocate their forces, creating additional opportunities for Ukraine. They have successfully targeted significant installations, including Russian ammunition and supply depots that were previously out of range but can now be struck using High Mobility Artillery Rocket System equipment obtained from the West. For instance, utilizing British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles, the Ukrainians have reportedly destroyed a major Russian supply hub at Rykove, just north of Crimea. They have also reportedly eliminated a gathering of over 100 Russian soldiers in Luhansk Oblast who were awaiting orders before entering combat.
Fortunately, Ukraine maintains advantages in motivation, intelligence, and strategic high command, while also receiving increasingly advanced weaponry from the West. In due time, these factors will become apparent. However, immediate results should not be expected. If the Ukrainians intend to achieve significant gains from the counteroffensive, they must first neutralize a substantial number of Russian forces, gradually pushing forward. Their audacious, risky, and time-consuming endeavor will not be a swift steamrolling operation.
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