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We are currently working on a “grand bargain” in the Middle East to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. As part of this agreement, the US is willing to provide security guarantees to Saudi Arabia and support for a civil nuclear program. Israel, in turn, will make concessions for the Palestinians.
Throughout history, US diplomats from Kissinger to Carter, and from Clinton to Kushner, have sought to broker peace deals in the Middle East. Now, the Biden administration is taking on this challenge. The White House is working on a “grand bargain” to achieve normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US is willing to offer security guarantees and assistance for a civil nuclear program to Saudi Arabia, while Israel is expected to make concessions for the Palestinians.
Advocates of Biden’s grand bargain tout several appealing benefits. It promises to extend peace, prosperity, and stability in the Middle East, strengthen the US in its competition with China, and give Biden a significant diplomatic achievement to showcase during the 2024 presidential election campaign.
However, the reality of this deal may be far less attractive. The US could find itself defending an unpredictable autocracy in Saudi Arabia and bolstering an Israeli government that is undermining its own democracy. Additionally, the expected gains, such as countering China’s influence and advancing Palestinian progress, may never materialize, rendering the grand bargain an illusion.
Relations between the US and Saudi Arabia have been strained during the Biden administration. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, was angered by a US government report accusing him of direct involvement in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Furthermore, the warm reception given to Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Saudi Arabia raised concerns in Washington. China played a role in brokering peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia’s recent decision to join the Brics, a group seen as Beijing’s alternative to the G7, further fueled unease in the US.
Despite its initial intention to focus on China, the Biden administration realized the need for re-engagement in the Middle East as part of its global competition with China. Saudi Arabia’s significance as a major player in various domains, including finance, trade, security, and regulation, made it crucial for the US to bring the country back into its camp.
However, while the benefits of a US-Saudi-Israel deal are apparent, so are the risks. Unlike countries like Japan or Germany, Saudi Arabia is not a democracy and has a troubling human rights record. Senator Chris Murphy, a close ally of Biden, has expressed concerns about defending a Middle Eastern country prone to conflicts with its neighbors. Murphy believes that the global competition with China ultimately revolves around the type of government the world will adopt, and aligning closely with brutal dictatorships makes it harder to promote democracy.
Given the views of influential figures like Senator Murphy, it would be a significant setback if the Biden administration were to negotiate a new treaty only to face difficulties in getting it approved by Congress.
On the Israeli side, the current government led by Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of eroding Israeli democracy. Netanyahu’s coalition includes racist parties, as acknowledged by Tamir Pardo, a former head of the Israeli intelligence agency appointed by Netanyahu. These parties are expanding Israeli settlements at the expense of Palestinians, while violence in the occupied territories escalates. Netanyahu himself is facing corruption charges, which should raise concerns in the Biden administration.
Supporters of the grand bargain argue that Israel will have to make concessions for the Palestinians as part of the deal. These concessions could revive the two-state solution and potentially force Netanyahu to form a coalition with more moderate parties. However, there are doubts about Netanyahu’s willingness to fulfill these theoretical concessions, and it is uncertain if the US or Saudi Arabia would have the means or determination to push for genuine progress towards a two-state solution.
The Biden administration’s grand bargain for the Middle East may sound enticing, but it risks rewarding the wrong actors at the wrong time and for the wrong reasons.
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