(Bloomberg) — Following the sudden disappearance of internet and mobile phone service in the Gaza Strip on Friday, US officials delivered a discreet but clear message to Israel: Restore the networks. As Israel launched its ground invasion, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government promptly complied.
For the US administration, this incident exemplifies the success of combining unwavering public support for Israel with softer yet persistent signals regarding the protection of civilians and containment of the conflict.
“By publicly embracing Israel, we gain the ability to quietly communicate more challenging advice, while also ensuring that the other side is receptive to our message,” said Mara Rudman, a former White House adviser now serving as a senior counselor at the Center for American Progress think-tank.
However, this delicate balance becomes more challenging as Israel intensifies its attacks, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and as fighting escalates on Israel’s northern borders, raising fears of a wider war.
On Tuesday, Israel targeted a refugee camp in northern Gaza, resulting in a high number of casualties. The strike on the Jabaliya camp, which Israel claimed Hamas was utilizing as a training center, drew strong condemnation from Arab governments.
The escalating civilian death toll has raised questions about the efficacy of the US’s unconditional public support for Israel and whether President Joe Biden is taking sufficient action to prevent further escalation. Additionally, the administration is encountering growing opposition in Congress regarding its push for increased aid to Israel.
“We possess leverage, but the question is whether we are utilizing it,” said Daniel Kurtzer, a former US ambassador to Egypt and Israel. “If our message regarding the bombings had an impact, we would have seen a reduction in the scale and scope of the ongoing operations.
US officials argue that the situation could have been far worse given Israel’s initial shock and anger following the October 7 attack by Hamas, which resulted in over 1,400 casualties, including many children.
Thus far, the US’s track record in influencing Netanyahu has yielded mixed results. The US urged Israel to delay its ground operation to allow for negotiations aimed at securing the release of the 230 hostages abducted by Hamas and other militants. However, Hamas has only released a few hostages, and Israel accuses the group of using negotiations as a stalling tactic.
Under US pressure, Israel has adjusted its battle plan, opting for a more targeted approach instead of the initially contemplated devastating assault. The Israeli military characterizes its strategy as “slow and meticulous,” primarily concentrated on northern Gaza, with civilians urged to evacuate southward.
Nevertheless, with the mounting civilian death toll in Gaza, this approach may prove insufficient.
Efforts by Washington to persuade Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza via Egypt have yielded limited results thus far. However, officials remain hopeful that progress will be made in the coming days.
The US has limited direct influence over the Rafah border crossing, which is the only non-Israeli route. Each party — Egypt, Israel, and Hamas — has blamed the others for delays in aid deliveries. Nonetheless, Israel has restored some supplies, including water, to Gaza.
On Wednesday, a small number of foreigners and injured Palestinians were permitted to leave Gaza for Egypt, marking the first such departures since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.
“Israel must do a significantly better job of ensuring humanitarian assistance flows in and that people have safe havens,” said Dennis Ross, the former White House Middle East envoy and now a senior advisor at WestExec Advisors. “If Israel is to have the necessary time and space to accomplish its objectives and allow us to assist, all of this must be part of their strategy.”
The US has recently emphasized the need for pauses in the fighting to permit aid delivery, although Israel has shown little enthusiasm for this idea. The White House has also warned that Gaza is on the brink of running out of fuel. Israel has refused to allow fuel into Gaza, arguing that it would be used by Hamas for military purposes.
The Biden administration’s attempts to engage Israel in discussions about post-operation management in Gaza have yielded limited results thus far, according to US officials. Talks about potential international involvement in governing the enclave are still in their initial stages.
Meanwhile, the White House has initiated discreet conversations with Gulf partners to discuss future plans, according to individuals familiar with the discussions.
The war has also led to attacks on US military bases in the Middle East, specifically in Iraq and Syria, which the Pentagon attributes to Iranian proxies. These attacks prompted the US, which has deployed two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean, to authorize strikes on targets in Syria associated with Iran.
The conflict has also incited growing anger across the Arab world, resulting in violent protests that could undermine longstanding US-led diplomatic efforts to enhance Israel’s integration with its Arab neighbors. The primary focus of these efforts was to facilitate formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
One significant concern for the US is the potential damage to Israel’s emerging security relationships in the region if retaliation in Gaza remains unchecked. This could impede Israel’s ability to share intelligence with Arab countries and Turkey.
–With assistance from Fiona MacDonald, Jennifer Jacobs, and Sylvia Westall.
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