In our current polarized political climate, elections serve as the primary means of understanding the information voters receive and how they use it to make decisions. Since Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, two key factors have heavily influenced our politics: the Trump takeover of the GOP and the issue of abortion. Regardless of the type of election or time of year, each election night sheds some light on voter opinions regarding these topics. With just a week until several crucial state races, we have an opportunity to gain insight into the future of our politics leading up to the 2024 election.
This year’s elections include gubernatorial races and others that will provide an indication of the significance of the abortion issue. For instance, the battle for control of the Virginia Legislature and the Ohio ballot measure, which aims to protect abortion access in the state’s constitution, will offer valuable insights. The most essential lesson we can learn from voters next Tuesday is the level of motivation surrounding the abortion issue. Recent results from the 2022 midterms, abortion-related statewide votes in conservative-leaning states, and the success of pro-abortion rights candidates in special elections all point to access to abortion being a significant motivator in recent elections.
Currently, among Democrats, abortion appears to be the sole issue that effectively mobilizes voters under the age of 40. Without this issue, Democrats may not be as competitive in these contests, considering the overall dissatisfaction with the country and the president. That is why the abortion ballot measure in Ohio is seen as a strong favorite leading up to Election Day.
In terms of national significance, Virginia is likely to produce the most impactful results compared to Kentucky or Ohio. The GOP is attempting to defend an abortion position in Virginia that many Republican pollsters consider to be the safest: legal abortion up until 15 weeks with certain exceptions. Virginia, therefore, becomes a bellwether for how voters perceive these two contrasting abortion stances. While a 15-week limit may be acceptable to moderate voters, it does not necessarily represent their preferred abortion policy.
The campaign for control of the Virginia Legislature serves as a referendum on these two abortion positions, and its outcome will determine whether GOP strategists have misjudged their own polling. Virginia’s election will be a significant moment as it will reveal whether the Republican stance on a 15-week abortion ban is a winning position in swing states. Additionally, it will intensify concerns about President Joe Biden and his prospects within the Democratic Party if Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin leads his party to full control of the state.
Abortion also plays a crucial role in the Kentucky governor’s race, where incumbent Governor Andy Beshear has positioned himself as a “pro-life Democrat” throughout his political career. However, pre-Dobbs labels like this have become meaningless as the focus has shifted to access. Beshear has seized the opportunity to highlight differences between himself and the Kentucky Republicans after the passage of a restrictive abortion law with limited exceptions. The GOP nominee, state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, has struggled to articulate his position, but he now claims he would sign a bill that includes more traditional exceptions such as rape, incest, and cases where the mother’s life is at risk. Voters have witnessed the conservative policies put forth by the GOP Legislature, and Cameron has had to account for it throughout his campaign.
Nevertheless, abortion alone does not solely explain Beshear’s potential reelection. Beshear possesses several built-in advantages, including the moderate and centrist brand associated with his last name in Kentucky. While “Beshear” represents the Democratic party, neither Andy nor his father, Steve, who served as governor from 2007-2015, have been considered national liberals. Moreover, Beshear’s positive involvement in storm recovery efforts has endeared him to many in the hard-hit communities. The awareness of this advantage is evident in Cameron’s campaign, as one of his recent TV ads starts with him acknowledging that Beshear is a “nice enough guy.” This is typically a sign that a campaign is struggling to win over voters who would typically align with them but have developed an affinity for the opponent.
If Cameron falls short, Republicans will scrutinize the costly primary he endured due to the involvement of self-funder Kelly Craft, a former United Nations Ambassador who finished third. Supporters of Cameron argue that the time and money spent on the primary cost them in the general election.
The least nationally relevant but most captivating race is taking place in Mississippi, where GOP Governor Tate Reeves faces a formidable challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley, who hails from the famous Presley family. Presley has focused his campaign on two issues specific to the state: the two-decade GOP control of the governor’s mansion and Medicaid expansion. Mississippi is one of ten states yet to expand Medicaid eligibility outlined in the 2010 Affordable Care Act. This issue is gaining traction as rural hospitals struggle financially due to providing legally mandated but uncompensated care.
National Democrats have invested substantial resources, hoping to achieve success in Mississippi despite its red-state status. They recognize the importance of energizing the state’s significant African-American population, which is the largest among all states. However, the party has never fully committed the necessary resources to engage black voters in Mississippi. Reeves has faced challenges in distancing himself from the previous GOP administration, which was involved in a scandal concerning Brett Favre and the mismanagement of welfare funds. While Reeves was not directly implicated, his lack of effort to address the scandal has not gone unnoticed. Furthermore, the welfare scandal has bolstered the argument that the Republicans have maintained control for too long.
Notably, Reeves lacks the charisma of Beshear, while Presley possesses the charm associated with his famous last name. This charm could potentially translate into a 2 or 3-point advantage for Presley, but it is unlikely to be sufficient to overcome Reeves. For Presley to win, there must be higher-than-usual turnout among black and young voters. While there is no indication of this happening thus far, the outcome will ultimately be determined through the democratic process.
This is the first governor’s race in Mississippi since the questionable Jim Crow-era provision, which required candidates to secure both a majority of the popular vote and a majority in each state House district. Failure to meet both criteria would result in the Legislature deciding the election outcome. This provision has been removed from the state constitution, adding another layer of interest to this election.
