At What Point Will the Southwest Region Become Uninhabitable?

In the arid desert, the summer truly begins with the arrival of May. It signifies the start of the dry season, where temperatures reach the 90s, giving us a preview of the scorching triple-digit days that lie ahead. While some still venture out to the trails and campsites, May marks the end of hiking season for me and the beginning of pool season. Since May 1st, I have made it a daily ritual to head to the University of Arizona recreation center in Tucson for a revitalizing swim. As I leisurely do the backstroke, I delight in the graceful movements of the mourning doves and hawks soaring above in the vast sky.

When my family first considered moving to Tucson four years ago, I momentarily entertained the idea of finding a home with a pool. Many homes in the middle-class neighborhoods of the city come equipped with these cement oases. However, mindful of the desert’s scarce water resources, my partner and I decided against it. Instead, the university pool has become my sanctuary.

Swimming is more than just a physical activity; it is a form of meditation and an escape from the stresses of life. In the desert, it also becomes a necessity as temperatures steadily rise during the summer months. In the past, locals could rely on occasional relief from the heat, with the occasional 90-degree day and cool nights providing respite. However, the scorching heat waves have become the new norm, and we must seek refuge in man-made environments. Movie theaters, museums, our air-conditioned homes, and the pool become our havens, as clouds and shade are a rare occurrence in the desert landscape.

The arid Southwest has always been characterized by little rainfall and warm summers. However, over the past two decades, chronic drought and escalating temperatures have become increasingly severe. This summer, a persistent heat dome has settled over the region, with temperatures in Phoenix soaring to 110 degrees for nearly two consecutive weeks. While Arizona may be breaking records, this worrying trend is not exclusive to the state. On July 3rd, the global average temperature reached the highest level since 1979, further emphasizing the urgent need to address the growing climate crisis.

Heat-related deaths are a tragic reality in the United States, with an average of 702 fatalities each year. The most vulnerable groups include young children, older adults, and outdoor workers. My family and I take these deaths seriously; when we moved to Tucson in July 2019, I made a vow to never venture out for a hike during the peak heat hours. I vividly recall the surge of anxiety I experienced when I realized we had ventured deep into a trail without nearby shade trees and with our water supply rapidly depleting. That experience served as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by extreme heat.

Those who can afford to adapt to the harsh desert conditions do so. Air-conditioning is an absolute necessity in Arizona. When ours broke during a heat wave, we found ourselves waiting for a week to have it replaced due to high demand. Our next-door neighbor kindly lent us a swamp cooler, a device widely used by residents of mobile homes. However, the sweltering temperatures still made for sleepless nights.

In addition to museums and pools, families seek refuge in indoor gyms and supermarkets to escape the heat. This summer, the city of Tucson is running 20 free public pools, while businesses set up misters and umbrellas to provide relief. New Mexican shaved-ice joints, known as raspados, are also springing up across town. In my neighborhood, there is a fire station with a prominently displayed handwritten sign that urges people to find shelter from the heat. It serves as one of many informal sites around the city, along with the six official cooling centers. These centers, typically large, air-conditioned rooms with access to water, make a significant difference in the lives of older adults and individuals experiencing homelessness, providing a respite from the lethargy and potential health risks associated with extreme heat.

When my friends in more moderate climates express curiosity about my love for desert life, I explain that it is the humbling nature of this environment that has captivated me. It has brought me closer to nature and instilled a slower, more sustainable pace of life. Surprisingly, Tucson is a hotbed of innovative solutions to address climate change, with a vibrant community actively working towards sustainability. Faced with unrelenting heat, Tucsonans come together to learn about rainwater harvesting and advocate for bike-friendly infrastructure.

The allure of the southwestern lifestyle continues to attract millions of Americans. According to the latest census data, Phoenix is now the fastest-growing major city in the United States, with its metro area surpassing 5 million residents. Similarly, Las Vegas, another desert city grappling with water scarcity, continues to experience disproportionate growth.

Each new arrival embraces the beautiful aspects of this region, but with their arrival comes added strain on our limited resources to combat the heat. I worry about the day when the Sonoran Desert and the wider Southwest become uninhabitable due to the lack of cooling options. Our current means of escape may only be available to those in certain neighborhoods, typically gated communities with higher average incomes. Already, Arizona is restricting new construction around Phoenix due to groundwater shortages.

According to an analysis by the climate nonprofit First Street Foundation, much of the United States could face “extreme danger” temperatures in the next 30 years. Currently, approximately 8 million people endure temperatures exceeding 125 degrees Fahrenheit for extended periods, but by 2053, an estimated 107 million people will face the same conditions. Although not all of them will be in the Southwest, the region is bound to experience substantial challenges. Climate experts hesitate to definitively say that this summer’s extreme conditions will become the new normal, but they do predict that the Southwest will continue breaking temperature records.

Despite these alarming predictions, people continue to relocate to this region. Perhaps it is because we do not perceive these extreme temperatures as a conventional natural disaster. The shift is occurring gradually, albeit rapidly, year after year. Our bodies, accustomed to the comforts of air-conditioning and pools, somehow manage to adapt, and come fall, our minds have a tendency to forget the toll the heat exacted on us.

During my daily swims, I find myself contemplating these issues. I reflect on the privilege I possess in being able to access a pool regularly, to immerse myself in the cool water, and enjoy the outdoors as temperatures surge. I imagine how it must feel to be deprived of such luxuries. I also ponder the possibility that there may come a time when a pool becomes our sole lifeline in this inhospitable environment. What happens then? We cannot spend our entire existence submerged in water.

During these moments of introspection, magical thinking often takes hold of my mind. I reassure myself that those of us who cherish the desert will find solutions together. I believe that the local government will intervene, and that we still have time to implement effective measures. As I float on the water’s surface, gazing up at the azure sky, I find solace in the thought of the approaching fall and winter months when cooler temperatures will once again permit us to fully enjoy the incredible wonders of this place. It is these reasons that deepen my affection for the desert and reinforce my desire to remain here, even in the face of adversity.

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