Russian President Vladimir Putin’s poor performance in Ukraine has led him to employ various tactics to distract the West. Currently, Russia, with the help of Serbia, is causing chaos in the Balkans, Europe’s soft underbelly. The goal is to push the Balkans to the brink and incite ethnic violence, thereby undermining NATO and reestablishing Russia as the dominant power in the region. However, it is puzzling why President Joe Biden and his team are going along with this plan.
Recent clashes in northern Kosovo between ethnic Serbs and the police have raised concerns. These clashes followed the arrest of a suspected Serb protest leader. Two weeks ago, after municipal elections that saw the election of ethnically Albanian mayors, Serbian protesters clashed with NATO troops, injuring 30 members of the alliance’s peacekeeping force. It is important to note that only 6% of Kosovo’s 1.8 million residents are Serbian, while 92% are Albanian. Kosovo has historically been a strong ally of the United States, with streets named after American leaders. However, the US has removed Kosovo from its current NATO exercise, “Defender Europe 23.”
The US ambassador to Kosovo’s accusation against Serbia’s government, rather than calling out Serbia’s troublemaking, and the praise from the US ambassador to Serbia for being a constructive partner reflect a strange shift in American policy. This shift is driven by Biden’s risk aversion and fear of Russian escalation. The United States is concerned that Serbia may align itself with Russia, leading to another conflict. However, it is crucial for the Biden administration to understand that appeasing Russia only emboldens Putin.
Contrary to the US embassy’s statement that Serbia has chosen the West, Serbia’s balancing strategy between Russia and Washington has allowed military exercises with NATO to occur frequently since 2014. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s typical tactic is to escalate and then de-escalate, using Kosovo as a bargaining chip with the West. Russia is also encouraging Serbia to escalate further, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov blaming the West for the outbreak of violence. Russian Ambassador to Serbia Aleksandr Botsan-Kharchenko has labeled the situation in Kosovo a “hybrid war,” drawing parallels with the Ukrainian Maidan movement.
The West’s failure to recognize Vucic’s and Putin’s power games and its inclination to blame Kosovo is part of a realpolitik strategy. The United States considers Serbia strategically more important than Kosovo, fearing that Serbia could align with Russia and ignite a new conflict in the region. However, appeasement towards Serbia will not work as Serbia-Russia relations remain strong. Serbia’s cooperation in military exercises and empty rhetoric is a result of its balancing strategy, not its allegiance to the West.
To counter Russia’s influence, the West should pressure Serbia to accept Kosovo’s independence and impose sanctions on Russia. NATO’s decision to deploy 700 troops to bolster security in the area is a step in the right direction, signaling a readiness to intervene against Serbian forces in case of escalation. Instead of allowing Moscow to undermine NATO, it is time for the West to demonstrate that the Kremlin is nothing more than an empty shell. Weakness only emboldens Putin and Vucic, and they will continue to heat up this frozen conflict to serve their interests.
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