Analysts Estimate August Inflation Rate at 5%

INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

Private-sector analysts in the Philippines anticipate a 5 percent upturn in overall inflation for August, slightly below the central bank’s projection of 5.2 percent. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) predicts a range of 4.8 percent to 5.6 percent, up from 4.7 percent in July. ING Bank supports this outlook, highlighting fuel and rice prices as the primary catalysts for inflation. The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the official August figures on September 4. Security Bank Corp.’s Chief Economist, Robert Dan Roces, estimates August inflation between 4.8 percent and 5.2 percent, stating that while rice prices have risen, the overall rate remains reasonable and lower than previous surges this year.

Moderate Uptick

According to Roces, the projected August inflation increase is relatively moderate compared to the spike observed from December 2022 to February 2023. He further adds that inflation is expected to fall within the BSP’s target range of 2 percent to 4 percent in the fourth quarter, unless there are sustained increases in rice and fuel prices. Meanwhile, Jonathan Ravelas, Managing Director of eManagement for Business and Marketing Services, forecasts a lower inflation rate of 4.9 percent for August. FMIC and UA&P Capital Markets Research predicts a repeat of last August’s inflation spike in September due to higher oil and food prices. However, they believe this increase will be temporary as supply response is expected to bring inflation back within the 2 percent to 4 percent range by the fourth quarter.

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