Analysis: U.S. Economy Shows Signs of Recovery, Spotlight Shifts to Debt and Immigration

In a refreshing change of pace, the nation, along with its policymakers, now has the opportunity to move beyond crisis mode. This is a pivotal moment for President Biden and Congress to not only celebrate their achievements but also tackle the longstanding challenges facing the United States.

The U.S. economy continues to surprise us, and the majority of these surprises have been cause for celebration. Spring growth exceeded expectations, inflation is cooling down at a faster rate than anticipated, and unemployment remains at historic lows. There is a growing sense of optimism, with consumer spending remaining strong and wages now outpacing inflation. Additionally, UPS workers will not go on strike after receiving a significant pay raise. The stock market is performing exceptionally well, and Wall Street banks are no longer predicting an imminent recession. Business investment is on the rise, and even the housing market appears to be turning around. It seems like the impossible task of reducing inflation without triggering mass layoffs and a downturn is within reach.

President Biden is eager to take credit for this Goldilocks economy. While government investments in infrastructure and manufacturing have contributed to these positive outcomes, their impact has been relatively modest given the size of the $25 trillion economy. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive battle against inflation has played a larger role. However, the biggest factor is likely the economy returning to a state of normalcy after three years of turmoil. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell emphasized this in his recent news conference, referring to everything from supply chains to the job market as “normal” or in the process of “normalization.”

The improvements in the economy are becoming more noticeable to the average American. Sentiment has significantly improved in recent weeks as people are finally putting the pandemic behind them and embracing fun and optimism once again. This summer is a time for joy, with Taylor Swift’s music, friendship bracelets, European vacations, and laughter from watching “Barbie” movies making a comeback.

What’s particularly striking is how the United States has outperformed the rest of the world in its economic recovery. China’s economy is sluggish, Germany is barely emerging from a recession, and Britain continues to grapple with high inflation. In contrast, the United States has made a remarkable rebound, with growth almost back to its pre-pandemic levels. Middle-class wages are also close to their pre-pandemic trend, even after accounting for recent inflation shocks.

However, the country still faces challenges. Lower-income households are feeling the impact of higher costs, serving as a reminder that the battle against inflation is not yet over. Additionally, many Americans still struggle to afford homeownership, and credit card debt is at an all-time high. Beyond economic concerns, the ongoing assaults on abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and historical truths about slavery by the GOP highlight the lingering abnormal aspects of American life.

Nevertheless, the nation’s recent streak of good fortune presents an opportunity for its leaders to address long-term national problems. Topping the list is the $32 trillion national debt and immigration. Taking action on these issues would position the United States for stronger growth in the coming decades and demonstrate that American leaders are capable of solving complex problems.

The Social Security program is projected to have insufficient funds to pay full benefits as early as 2034. Implementing simple changes now, such as increasing taxes on the wealthy and moderating benefit growth, could save the program for everyone, particularly lower- and middle-class Americans who heavily rely on it. We have outlined other strategies to stabilize debt over the next decade, including prudent spending cuts and tax adjustments, in a recent publication. Failing to act would result in a mounting interest burden for the government, which would limit its ability, as well as the private sector’s, to invest in the future.

Meanwhile, immigration has been a pressing issue for the past two decades. As baby boomers retire, the United States needs an influx of workers. While there has been a positive increase in individuals entering the labor force, especially women of color, there is still a need for more workers. The United States is competing globally for talent, and any delay in addressing this issue could hinder President Biden’s plans to boost domestic manufacturing by creating more factories due to a shortage of skilled construction workers. Congress is long overdue for a substantial overhaul of immigration policies. In the meantime, President Biden is right to use every available mechanism to allow more migrants to enter legally.

The United States has experienced an impressive economic comeback, but now is the time to aim for even greater heights.

Note: This article represents the views of The Post’s Editorial Board, which operates independently from the newsroom and reaches its conclusions through internal debates. The Board’s members have various areas of expertise and focus, including national politics, policy, foreign affairs, international economics, technology, and society.

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