New Report Reveals Shocking Death Toll in Russia’s War in Ukraine
BRUSSELS — In a groundbreaking independent study, it has been revealed that nearly 50,000 Russian men have lost their lives in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This statistic, which unveils one of Moscow’s most closely guarded secrets, was brought to light by two renowned Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza. Working alongside a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, these organizations utilized government data to provide a comprehensive understanding of the devastating human cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The study relied on the concept of excess mortality, which gained popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic. By examining inheritance records and official mortality data, the researchers estimated the number of additional deaths among males under the age of 50 between February 2022 and May 2023 compared to the expected norm.
Both the Russian and Ukrainian governments have refrained from sharing timely data on military losses. Each side tends to downplay its own casualties while amplifying the losses suffered by the opposing side. This lack of transparency has led to the suppression of reports about military fatalities in Russian media, and those who attempt to document the deaths face harassment and potential legal repercussions.
Despite these challenges, Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service, in collaboration with a network of volunteers, have managed to create a database of confirmed war deaths using social media posts and photographs of cemeteries throughout Russia. As of July 7, they had identified 27,423 Russian soldiers who had lost their lives in the conflict.
Dmitry Treshchanin, an editor at Mediazona who played a key role in the investigation, stated, “These are only the soldiers whose identities we have been able to ascertain, and their deaths have been verified by multiple sources. The estimations we have made with the help of Meduza allow us to shed light on the ‘hidden’ deaths that the Russian government has been desperately and unsuccessfully trying to conceal.”
In order to compile a more comprehensive tally, journalists from Mediazona and Meduza obtained records of inheritance cases filed with Russian authorities from the National Probate Registry. This data covered over 11 million individuals who passed away between 2014 and May 2023.
Based on their analysis, there were 25,000 more inheritance cases opened in 2022 for males aged 15 to 49 than expected. By May 27, 2023, this number had risen to 47,000, indicating a significant surge in deaths. This figure is consistent with a previous assessment by the White House, which estimated that over 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December. However, it is lower than the estimates provided by US and UK intelligence assessments on the overall number of Russian fatalities.
The UK Ministry of Defense, for instance, stated in February that approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians were likely killed in the war. Meanwhile, a leaked assessment from the US Defense Intelligence Agency suggested that 35,000 to 43,000 Russians were killed in action during the first year of the conflict.
Dmitry Treshchanin commented on these figures, saying, “Their accuracy is uncertain. Even if they have sources within the Russian Ministry of Defense, the data from the ministry itself may be incomplete. Gathering comprehensive casualty information from various entities, such as the army, Rosgvardia, Akhmat battalion, and private military companies (with Wagner being the largest but not the only one), is extremely challenging. The statistics could provide more accurate results.”
An intelligence assessment published by the UK Ministry of Defense on Monday highlighted that many Russian fatalities, as well as amputations, could have been prevented with better front-line first aid. The assessment stated that Russia has experienced an average of approximately 400 casualties per day for the past 17 months, creating a crisis in combat medical care that is likely impacting medical services for civilians residing in border regions near Ukraine.
In addition to the work conducted by Mediazona and Meduza, Dmitry Kobak, a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, utilized mortality data broken down by age and gender for 2022 from Rosstat, the official statistics agency of Russia. Kobak found that there were 24,000 more deaths among men under the age of 50 in 2022 than expected, a figure that aligns with the analysis of inheritance data.
Accounting for the lingering effects of COVID-19 on mortality, both analyses adjusted male death rates in relation to female deaths. However, Sergei Scherbov, a scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, cautioned that “differences in the number of deaths between males and females can vary significantly due to randomness alone.” Nevertheless, Kobak noted that while uncertainties do exist, especially regarding the deaths of older men and the number of missing Russian soldiers, these factors are unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall findings.
When questioned about the study by the Associated Press, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, during a conference call with reporters, claimed to be unaware of the study as the Kremlin had “stopped monitoring” Meduza. Peskov also declined to comment on the number of deaths mentioned in the study, stating that “the Defense Ministry provides the figures, and they are the sole authority on this matter.”
Meduza, an independent Russian media outlet, has been operating in exile for eight years, with its headquarters in Riga, Latvia. It was classified as a “foreign agent” by Russian authorities in April 2021, making it more difficult for the organization to generate advertising revenue. In January 2023, the Kremlin further banned Meduza, labeling it as an illegal “undesirable organization.” Similarly, Mediazona has also been labeled a “foreign agent” and had its website blocked following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Dasha Litvinova contributed to this report from Tallinn, Estonia.
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