In the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion, it appears that Russian leaders are living in a different reality. The events that have transpired speak for themselves. Russian troops allowed Wagner columns to pass through on their way to Moscow, and civilians warmly greeted them in the streets. President Vladimir Putin presented this as a united Russian society. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu remained out of sight while his subordinates met with Mr. Prigozhin, only to emerge days later to commend officers for their loyalty. General Sergei Surovikin, one of Russia’s most experienced generals, was filmed requesting that Wagner stand down but has not been seen since, while the inept military leadership remains in place. Strangely, Mr. Prigozhin, the mastermind behind it all, alternates between being ignored and seemingly meeting with Mr. Putin to resolve differences of opinion. These past few weeks have been truly bizarre.
However, amidst this chaos, the Russian war effort on the ground continues unabated. Operations proceeded as planned during the short-lived rebellion, and the chain of command held strong. There were no signs of mass refusals, desertions, or mutinies. As of now, Russia’s defensive positions from Belgorod to Crimea remain secure.
But how long can this last? The problems plaguing Russia’s campaign in Ukraine are likely to worsen. Mr. Shoigu and General Valeriy Gerasimov, the highest-ranking officer in Russia, will continue to conduct the war in an incompetent manner. Retained by Putin due to loyalty, they will probably suppress negative information and present a distorted picture of the war. The ongoing military housecleaning, while seemingly necessary, will only exacerbate dysfunction. The Kremlin, for the sake of familiarity, has chosen to reinforce failure.
Mr. Prigozhin’s critiques of the war, although dangerous, are correct. He has consistently pointed out how the war is mismanaged by out-of-touch bureaucrats at the highest levels, resulting in logistical problems and ammunition shortages. He has criticized Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov for downplaying bad news and engaging in petty intrigues with subordinates while misleading Mr. Putin. He has highlighted the fact that the children of Russia’s elite avoid military service while the poor return home in coffins.
Unfortunately, the Kremlin filters out these issues and instead presents an alternative, distorted view to the president and the disengaged public. Deputy Head of Russia’s national security council, Dmitri Medvedev, claims that 185,000 men joined the Russian military in 2023 alone. The Ministry of Defense boasts of destroying more HIMARS than Ukraine ever received. Mr. Shoigu declares, “Everything is proceeding according to plan.” None of these claims are true.
The disappearance of General Surovikin is a telling indicator of the current situation. Renowned for his focus and ruthless tactics, he took command of Russian forces last fall and ordered the construction of extensive defensive positions, now known as “Surovikin lines.” However, he was soon demoted in favor of General Gerasimov, who led an ineffective and costly winter offensive shortly after assuming command. In comparison, General Surovikin, a decorated veteran with respect within military, veteran, and blogger communities, appeared wiser. Rumors now swirl regarding his possible detention as punishment for his ties to Mr. Prigozhin and his knowledge of the rebellion. The delayed information regarding his whereabouts suggests that the Kremlin is still deciding on its next move.
In this atmosphere of suspicion and uncertainty, where prominent generals vanish and Mr. Putin blames traitors, self-censorship among top military leaders is likely to increase. Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov, now more dependent on Mr. Putin for their safety and positions, may be more inclined to conceal or downplay bad news from the battlefield to maintain his confidence. This further erodes the Kremlin’s understanding of the true state of the war, which is particularly crucial at this juncture.
All is not well on the Russian front lines. It remains uncertain whether Wagner troops will completely withdraw from Ukraine. If they do, regular military units will bear higher casualties at a time when they can ill afford further losses. According to the head of Britain’s armed forces, the Russian Army has already lost half of its combat effectiveness and may lack the strength to withstand the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive. Frontline units are exhausted and lack sufficient reserves to relieve them. Regular Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots, logistics hubs, and command posts only compound the difficulties. Just last week, at least two generals were dismissed for complaining about these untenable conditions.
These circumstances could present an opportunity for Ukrainian forces if they have the means to exploit them. However, they too face challenges. Persistent artillery strikes and limited air support hamper their progress, and clearing dense Russian minefields has become a dangerous and laborious task for combat engineers. When Ukrainian forces manage to reach Russian trenches, they often succeed in clearing them. The cluster munitions recently provided by the United States should also offer assistance.
For now, the Russian front lines hold, despite the Kremlin’s dysfunctional decision-making. Nevertheless, the mounting pressure from poor choices is taking its toll. In the words of Hemingway, the Russian front lines may crack “gradually, then suddenly.”
Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and a former analyst of Russian military capabilities at the U.S. Department of Defense, contributes this article.
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