Whitmer-Warnock ’24: A Creative Political Fantasy
Perry Bacon Jr.: I am not particularly enthused about the idea of Joe Biden running for a second term.
His approval ratings are considerably lower than those of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, or Barack Obama at this stage in their presidencies, midway through their third years in office.
His numbers are comparable to Trump’s. In polls for a potential 2024 matchup, Biden is essentially tied with Trump. Biden’s advantage over Trump (and likely DeSantis) stems from the unpopularity of these two Republicans, rather than Biden’s own political strength.
The primary driving factor here is Biden’s age. Many perceive him as being too old. Personally, I don’t find any evidence to be concerned about his health or mental capacity. However, I consistently hear concerns about his age from non-partisan Democrats in my life. This age-related concern is reflected in almost every poll.
In my opinion, if there was an incumbent Democratic president with Biden’s track record who wasn’t 80 years old, they would be more popular and have a better chance in the next election. While I don’t believe any Democrat under the age of 80 (or 70) who became the party’s presumptive nominee would poll better than Biden against Trump, I think many younger Democrats would be stronger candidates in the 2024 general election.
For instance, it’s evident that if Democrats could agree, without a primary, on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (Mich.) as president and Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (Ga.) as vice president for the party’s 2024 ticket, it would be a stronger choice than Biden-Harris. Alternatively, Sens. Cory Booker (N.J.) and Amy Klobuchar (Minn.). What I mean is a ticket consisting of a White person and a person of color, a man and a woman, and two individuals who align ideologically with the party’s mainstream — with none of them being over the age of 70.
However, it’s impossible to bypass a primary process!
Ruth Marcus: Building on Perry’s statement, I too wish Biden didn’t have to run for a second term. He is indeed too old. No, he doesn’t match the caricature of a declining senior that the GOP imagines, but it’s evident that he has visibly and measurably slowed down. At 80 years old, he’s simply too old for the demanding role of the presidency. However, there is a compelling reason for Biden to run. He (and Democrats) are right in their assessment. If he were to announce that he’s stepping aside, the party would be torn apart by the potential internecine warfare over Harris, the apparent heir, and other candidates, while also risking the election of a Republican president.
And not just any Republican. Trump represents the biggest existential risk and is the primary driver behind my belief that Biden must run. I used to think Trump was a unique threat and that Trumpism wouldn’t exist without him. However, I was mistaken. The dangerous forces he has unleashed remain potent even in his absence. From my perspective, the risk to the Supreme Court alone justifies doing everything possible to maximize the chances of electing a Democrat (i.e., Biden, Biden, Biden).
Eugene Robinson: Look, we all wish Biden were, let’s say, 60 instead of 80. But is there a younger Democrat who could have defeated Donald Trump in 2020? I doubt it. And is there a younger Democrat who could beat Trump in 2024? Perhaps. I do like Perry’s suggestion of Whitmer and Warnock as a ticket. However, I don’t favor the idea of taking another existential gamble with our democracy. If Trump becomes the GOP nominee, as seems likely, it will likely be another close election. Landslides are a thing of the past. Regardless of how uncomfortable Republican voters might be with four more years of Trump’s madness, we should expect most of them to support their party’s nominee. Relying on the justice system to save the nation would be unwise. On Election Day, Biden will be 82 and Trump will be 78. The “age issue” should be inconsequential.
Furthermore, let’s not forget that Biden has been an incredibly effective president, implementing policies both domestically and internationally that I fully support. A president with his track record deserves a second term, along with congressional majorities to complement it.
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