Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s upcoming two-day trip to China, starting on Sunday, marks his first visit since assuming office and the first visit by a U.S. secretary of state since Mike Pompeo’s trip in 2018. This prolonged gap in high-level diplomatic visits between the world’s two largest economies and top two trading nations needs to come to an end. It is high time for a resumption of dialogue.
China’s strict pandemic restrictions have played a role in this lengthy hiatus, as the country closed its doors to outside visitors as part of its now-abandoned “zero covid” strategy. However, the five-year gap also reflects the growing tension and strained relationship between the two superpowers. Mutual suspicion and finger-pointing have replaced regular dialogue and open channels of communication.
The deterioration of relations began when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi decided to visit Taiwan in August, a move that we argued was ill-timed and unwise. In response, China conducted live-fire military exercises around Taiwan and froze most official contacts with the United States. There was hope for a thaw in relations when President Biden met Chinese President Xi Jinping for over three hours of talks in Indonesia in November. While the two leaders agreed on little, they emphasized the importance of continuing discussions among top officials, starting with Blinken’s visit to Beijing in February.
However, the trip had to be postponed due to various incidents that further strained U.S.-China relations. One such incident was the sighting of a Chinese surveillance aircraft drifting across the U.S., which caused a political uproar. Concerns were raised again when it was confirmed this month that China maintains a spy base in Cuba. As a result, the State Department has warned against expecting significant breakthroughs during Blinken’s upcoming visit, setting lower expectations.
High-level U.S. diplomatic visits to China used to be routine, with Hillary Clinton visiting the country seven times during her tenure as secretary of state. However, unless a major breakthrough occurs, there is a real possibility that President Biden will become the first U.S. president not to visit China since relations were normalized in 1978. Previous presidents, including Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, all visited during their first terms, while President Bill Clinton made the trip in his second term.
The lack of high-level visits to China comes at a crucial time of intense competition between Washington and Beijing, as the Biden administration seeks to formulate a China policy that acknowledges the interconnectedness of the two economies while recognizing China’s assertive behavior under President Xi. China’s ambition to challenge American and Western dominance in various aspects of the global order adds to the complexity of the relationship.
In the months leading up to Blinken’s postponed visit, the Biden administration has been rallying allies such as Japan and the Netherlands to restrict the sale of key chip manufacturing equipment to China. They have also strengthened military alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, including with Japan, India, Australia, and the Philippines. Furthermore, the administration has excluded China from its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework agreement, which includes a dozen countries. China views these actions as part of an effort to encircle and contain its rise, while the United States claims it intends to compete while avoiding conflict.
Both sides need to deescalate tensions and resume dialogue, especially military-to-military talks, to avoid misunderstandings that may lead to inadvertent mishaps. One visit is not enough to fully repair the relationship, but it is a necessary step towards renewing communication channels. The State Department’s decision to downplay expectations for this trip is prudent, but keeping dialogue open is crucial, even between adversaries and competitors. A high-level visit, which used to be commonplace, can serve as a starting point.
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