Amid Ongoing Threats to Deposed President’s Life, ECOWAS Deploys in Niger to Address Escalating Tensions

Tensions between Niger’s new military regime and the West African regional bloc are intensifying as troops are ordered to restore Niger’s struggling democracy. The ECOWAS bloc announced its decision to deploy a “standby force” aimed at reinstating constitutional order in Niger after the deadline to reinstate the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum expired. Reports surfaced that the junta in Niger had threatened to kill Bazoum if neighboring countries intervened militarily to restore his rule. The deployment of the ECOWAS force is still uncertain, and it remains to be seen how the threats against Bazoum will influence the bloc’s decision to intervene. Conflict experts suggest that the force, likely led by Nigeria and comprising around 5,000 troops, could be ready within weeks.

Neighboring Ivory Coast’s president, Alassane Ouattara, expressed his country’s support for the military operation, joining Nigeria and Benin in participating. Niger is considered a crucial partner for Western nations in combating the jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group in the region. France and the United States, along with other European partners, have invested significant resources to strengthen Niger’s military and counter the insurgency.

The junta, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, responsible for the coup, claims that it can better protect the nation from jihadi violence than Bazoum’s government. It has exploited anti-French sentiments among the population to garner support. However, residents in Niger’s capital, Niamey, feel that ECOWAS lacks an understanding of the ground reality and should refrain from intervening.

Recent protests in Niamey saw hundreds of people, including children, rallying against the French military base, denouncing France and demanding its departure. The African Union has expressed strong support for ECOWAS’ decision and called on the junta to deescalate the situation with the regional organization. It has also demanded the immediate release of Bazoum. France and the United States have voiced their support for ECOWAS’ efforts, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasizing the need for the junta to ensure Bazoum’s safety and security.

Despite international pressure, the mutinous soldiers who orchestrated the coup have entrenched themselves in power and refuse to release the president. The junta relayed the threat to Bazoum’s life to a U.S. diplomat, raising concerns about the safety of overthrown presidents. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch revealed that Bazoum’s 20-year-old son, who suffers from a serious heart condition, has been denied medical care. Other challenges, such as electricity shortages and restricted access to family and supplies, further exacerbate Bazoum’s predicament.

Uncertainty looms over ECOWAS’ decision to intervene militarily due to the threat on Bazoum’s life. While it may influence the bloc’s approach, analysts believe that the situation has entered uncharted territory. An invasion to restore constitutional order in Niger, given its size and population, would be an unprecedented undertaking. Niger has a relatively large and well-trained army that could pose significant obstacles if it resists an invasion.

Amidst mediation efforts and military preparations, the people of Niger are bearing the brunt of harsh economic and travel sanctions imposed by ECOWAS. Prior to the coup, more than 4 million Nigeriens relied on humanitarian aid, and the situation could worsen as aid becomes more challenging to deliver. The closure of borders hampers the transportation of goods, while restrictions within the country, including the closure of airspace, hinder humanitarian operations. Aid groups are appealing for exceptions to the sanctions to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations.

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