A recent study published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment by researchers from Italy’s National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology and University College London has revealed that the Campi Flegrei volcano located in southern Italy is at risk of an eruption. The researchers noted that the ground beneath the coastal town of Pozzuoli has been rising at a rate of 4 inches per year in the past decade, and there have been about 600 small earthquakes recorded in April alone. Moreover, Campi Flegrei volcano has not erupted since 1538, but it has experienced increased geological activity in recent decades.
Approximately 360,000 people live on the roof of the volcano, which is partially submerged beneath the Bay of Pozzuoli and not an obvious mountain. Researchers at University College London used simulation to interpret the patterns of earthquakes and ground uplift and confirmed that parts of the volcano had been stretched almost to a breaking point. The study’s lead author, Christopher Kilburn of University College London Earth Sciences, said that their new study confirmed that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupture; however, this does not guarantee an eruption. The magma still needs to push up at the right location for an eruption to occur.
The researchers first used the University College London model in 2017 and noted that the Campi Flegrei volcano has experienced an increasing number of small earthquakes consistent with the model’s predictions. Kilburn also acknowledged that this was the first time they had applied their model, based on the physics of how rocks break, in real-time to any volcano. He reiterated that they would need to adjust their procedures for estimating the chances of new routes opening for magma and gas to reach the surface.
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