If, as is likely, Donald Trump becomes the Republican presidential nominee in the next election, the 2024 elections will serve as a pivotal moment for several critical issues. These include the potential risk of authoritarianism in America, the preservation of a thriving democracy, the balance of power between the executive branch and the other branches of government, and the question of whether Trump will face legal consequences for his actions. Trump currently faces multiple civil suits and at least two criminal indictments, with potentially more on the horizon. However, if he were to win reelection, it is highly unlikely that any of these cases would be resolved in a manner unfavorable to him, given the significant influence of the presidency.
Let’s first consider the simpler cases, such as Trump’s pending indictment in Florida for violations of the Espionage Act concerning the retention of classified documents, as well as potential charges related to the January 6 insurrection. If Trump is elected, it is doubtful that either of these cases would result in a final judgment of guilt or incarceration. As someone with experience in criminal appeals, I can attest that even the simplest cases typically take at least a year to be resolved. Therefore, it’s highly likely that Trump’s appeal of any federal conviction would still be pending before the Eleventh Circuit Court, which has jurisdiction over federal trials in Florida, well beyond the 2024 elections. It is also probable that Trump would petition the Supreme Court for review, further prolonging the resolution of the case.
A similar timeline would apply to potential charges related to the January 6 attack, which could be brought by the special counsel in Washington, D.C. Even if this trial were to proceed more swiftly than the one in Florida, it is highly unlikely that the entire process—from trial to appeal—could be completed within 10 months. In summary, there is no possibility that any federal charges against Trump would reach a final resolution before January 20, 2025, should he win reelection. Furthermore, it is almost certain that a Trump-appointed attorney general would move to dismiss any pending cases against the president. Although these proceedings would not be entirely pointless, as a conviction in either trial would establish a historical record of his criminality, it would still mean enduring another four years of his rule without true accountability.
The situation becomes more complex when we consider the state charges Trump faces in an ongoing case in New York, as well as a forthcoming case in Georgia. Legally speaking, these cases proceed independently from federal matters, and Trump cannot rely on the federal government to dismiss them or pardon himself for state crimes. However, these cases would also face significant challenges in reaching a resolution. The Department of Justice, under Trump’s control, would likely argue that a sitting president is immune from state prosecution during their time in office, which holds some validity. Allowing state prosecutors to try a sitting president could set a precedent for political persecution. Furthermore, if Trump returns to office, his federal status and the potential disruption to governmental activities resulting from his personal civil liability would strengthen arguments for shifting these cases to federal court or dismissing them entirely.
There may also be practical obstacles to overcome. If New York and Georgia persist in pursuing these cases against Trump, he could retaliate in numerous ways. For instance, he could attempt to withdraw federal funding for law enforcement in these states or direct the FBI to cease collaborative investigations. In Georgia, which is under Republican leadership, Trump could pressure the state legislature to pass laws limiting the power of the Atlanta District Attorney or even mandating the dismissal of the case. These scenarios raise important questions that our country should not have to face.
The likelihood that Trump will evade accountability for his criminal conduct if he is reelected represents just a fraction of the broader threat he poses to the rule of law. Nonetheless, it symbolizes a return to an era in which political leaders could act with impunity, reminiscent of kingly prerogative. It is essential to recognize that when Americans cast their votes in 2024, if Trump is a candidate, they will not only be selecting between two political options but also making one of the most consequential choices in the history of our nation. This choice will determine whether we uphold the principle that no person is above the law or allow a regression toward unchecked political power. Ultimately, our national character rests on the decision we make.
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