Ukraine’s Counteroffensive: Strained Soldiers, Limited Resources, and the Urgent Need for Support

As winter approaches, the harsh reality of a long and grueling war sets in for Ukraine. The soldiers on the frontline are exhausted but remain highly motivated in their relentless battles against Russian forces. Despite their valiant efforts, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has yielded little progress thus far. They are now calling for more support from the West to gain the initiative in this protracted conflict.

On the frontlines near Kreminna, 26-year-old soldier Istoryk, a senior combat medic, managed to steal a brief moment of sleep one morning. However, his rest was abruptly interrupted when a fresh firefight broke out just an hour later. In a fierce and lengthy exchange, Istoryk and his unit fought valiantly for over 20 hours. Although they are fatigued, they remain determined to find the strength to keep fighting.

Istoryk’s account highlights the enormous strain that this 21st-month-long war has imposed on Ukraine’s limited resources and troops. They face the uncomfortable reality of Russia’s superior army, greater arsenal, and ammunition. The question looms over Ukraine of how they can effectively repel the invaders and end this conflict, which has become Europe’s bloodiest since World War Two.

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhnyi, echoes this concern and describes the situation as a “stalemate” on the battlefield. He warns that a prolonged and attritional war would favor Russia and could pose a serious threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty. Zaluzhnyi emphasizes the urgent need for new capabilities to tip the scales in Kyiv’s favor, including increased support from Western allies and locally produced drones.

The general’s assessment aligns with the arrival of seasonal rains, which complicate advances over muddy terrain. This follows a summer counteroffensive that has fallen short of Ukraine’s expectations in terms of territory liberation. However, the soldiers in the trenches remain undeterred by their exhaustion. Istoryk, speaking with a broad west Ukrainian accent, recounts his experiences with a winning smile. When asked if he could continue fighting for another year or two, he confidently responds, “For sure, I think so.”

Istoryk serves in the rifles battalion of the 67th Mechanized Brigade in the Serebryanskyi forest in the Luhansk region. Unfortunately, most of the province is already under Russian occupation. The area surrounding the road to the trenches bears the scars of countless shells, leaving behind craters and charred trees. This kind of intense fighting rages along the frontlines stretching from the border with Russia’s Belgorod region to the Black Sea.

Istoryk claims that Russia has suffered significant losses in the region, but the exact casualty figures cannot be verified independently. However, over the past 20 months of this ongoing conflict, tens of thousands of soldiers have lost their lives. Ukraine’s attempt to regain the initiative through its counteroffensive launched in June has not yielded the desired outcome thus far. The Ukrainian forces are still about 80-90 km away from their objective of reaching the coast, as extensive Russian defenses have held firm.

While more significant advancements are still possible, muddy conditions could hinder offensive operations. Colonel Oleksandr Popov, an artillery reconnaissance brigade commander, explains the challenges faced by soldiers in such circumstances. Running to an enemy position in June is vastly different from doing the same when one is knee-deep in mud, bundled in warm clothes and protective gear, and carrying a backpack with spare clothes. Despite the fatigue, drone pilots from Popov’s brigade appear less weary than their infantry counterparts.

Michael Kofman, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes the conflict has reached a “transitional phase” where both sides have the initiative in different parts of the front. He predicts that Ukraine’s offensive in the south is either nearing its culmination or has already stagnated.

Popov predicts that artillery will play a crucial role throughout the winter, as the targets become more static and the bare trees provide little camouflage for troops. He notes a significant decrease in Russian artillery strikes in the Lyman sector last month compared to the previous year. However, experts argue that both sides face limited ammunition stores. Kofman believes that Ukraine’s advantage in terms of artillery is diminishing, and their availability of ammunition will become constrained. Meanwhile, Russia will benefit from an influx of supplies from North Korea.

Aside from the battlefield, Ukraine has been actively targeting Russian air defenses, aircraft, and naval assets using long-range missiles supplied by the West. The goal is to disrupt the enemy’s ability to support frontline troops. Nonetheless, Russia continues its relentless bombardment of Ukraine, utilizing drones and missiles in what they claim is a targeted military campaign. However, their attacks have resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians and have severely impacted infrastructure, including heating, power, and transportation systems.

Back in the forests around Lyman, 26-year-old officer Zakhid anticipates that the next phase of the war will be arduous and a true test of character for the military. They are aware that their numbers are fewer, and their gear is less advanced than their adversaries. Nevertheless, their determination remains unflinching, and they press on.

Reporting by: Alina Smutko, Ivan Lyubysh-Kirdey

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