New Study Predicts 1.7 Million People Living With Dementia in England and Wales by 2040
According to a new study led by UCL, the number of people living with dementia in England and Wales could reach 1.7 million by 2040. This marks a significant increase of over 40% from previous projections. The study, published in The Lancet Public Health, reveals that although data up until 2010 showed a decline in dementia incidence in high-income countries, the trend started shifting after 2008. Additionally, the research highlights an increasing disparity in dementia incidence rates between educational groups. Those with lower educational attainment experienced a slower decline in the rate from 2002-2008 and a more rapid increase after 2008. This anticipated rise in dementia cases will have profound effects on individuals and place immense strain on health and social care systems.
Key Facts from the Study:
-Earlier estimates projected dementia cases to reach 1.2 million by 2040, but the new study suggests it could be as high as 1.7 million.
-Dementia incidence rate declined by 28.8% between 2002 and 2008 but saw a 25.2% surge between 2008 and 2016.
-Disparities in dementia incidence rates are growing between education groups, with a faster increase observed after 2008 in participants with lower educational attainment.
The research, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council, analyzed nine waves of data from individuals over 50 years old living in private households in England between 2002 and 2019. The study found that the dementia incidence rate decreased by 28.8% between 2002 and 2008 but increased by 25.2% between 2008 and 2016. Similar patterns were observed across subgroups based on age, sex, and educational attainment. Notably, participants with lower educational attainment experienced a slower decline in dementia incidence from 2002 to 2008 and a faster increase after 2008. The researchers project that if the observed incidence trend continues, the number of people with dementia in England and Wales could reach 1.7 million by 2040, which is twice the number in 2023. This estimate is significantly higher than the previously predicted figure of one million people, assuming dementia rates would continue to decline.
Lead author of the study, Dr. Yuntao Chen from UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care, expressed shock at the potential increase in dementia cases and emphasized the need for continued monitoring of the incidence trend to shape social care policy. Principal investigator, Professor Eric Brunner from UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care, added that the UK needs to be prepared to ensure that everyone affected by dementia has access to the necessary help and support.
James White, Head of National Influencing at Alzheimer’s Society, stated that dementia is the biggest health and social care issue of our time. He referred to the study’s findings as a stark reminder that without action, the devastating effects of dementia will continue. White emphasized the importance of improving diagnosis rates and ensuring access to quality social care tailored to the needs of people with dementia.
