Israel’s invasion of Gaza is currently on hold as they wait for clear skies. The control of airspace is crucial for Israel, as they want to be able to survey the area before sending in ground forces. Yesterday, there was rain, and the morning brought orange cumulus clouds over the Mediterranean. The forecast for today predicts more rain, which means that the Israeli infantry will most likely have to postpone their invasion. The anticipation of the invasion has made watching the Weather Channel both ominous and thrilling.
While it is widely known that the invasion is imminent, what remains unclear is the outcome for Palestinians. Shortly after Hamas’s attack on October 7, there was a consensus among Israelis that nothing short of the total annihilation of Hamas would be sufficient. It was also widely agreed that invading Gaza would be necessary to achieve this goal. Hamas intentionally hides among the civilian population and uses civilian areas to store weapons and launch attacks. This gives Israel the rationale of self-defense, which is a fundamental right for individuals and nations.
To provide journalists with a firsthand view of the situation, the Israeli government organized a visit to Sderot, the town closest to Gaza. The town is largely vacant and partially destroyed due to rockets fired from Gaza. In the past few days, the entire population of 30,000 people has been displaced to other cities. Seeing the devastation in Sderot is both eerie and infuriating. The mayor of Sderot expressed that the town had previously maintained friendly relations with the Gazans who came to work there. However, as long as Hamas remains in control, he is determined to prevent any Palestinians from entering.
Currently, Israel is urging residents of Gaza City to evacuate and move south. The Israel Defense Forces are making phone calls and dropping leaflets, pleading with civilians to leave a city that Hamas itself admits is a maze of tunnels used for military purposes. The best-case scenario for the city is becoming a necropolis 20 times the size of Sderot, with buildings that once housed families now filled with the last cries of those who stayed behind.
Israel is not trying to dispel the fear of a worst-case scenario. It is a promise of permanent demographic change. When Israel withdrew from Gaza 18 years ago, Israeli settlements were established, mainly in the southern part of Gaza. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had to forcibly remove these settlements. The desire to maintain a Jewish character led to this decision. Gaza, especially Gaza City, has a predominantly Muslim population, making it challenging to tip the demographic balance in favor of Jews through settlement construction. Ethnic cleansing would be required for such a significant change.
Considering this context, residents of Gaza City are hesitant to leave just because Israel tells them to. They fear that if they leave, Israel may prevent them from returning and use this opportunity to reshape the demography of the region. Even if Israel cannot completely empty the city, they could make it uninhabitable and force some of its Arab residents into permanent exile.
While there is no doubt about the brutality of the attacks on Sderot and nearby kibbutzim, the language used by Israeli government officials to denounce them is concerning. The Israeli government has a strong right-wing stance, and even the inclusion of more centrist figures in the recent coalition has not changed this tilt. The Israeli left has criticized the government’s leaders, referring to them as fascists, fanatics, and unhinged. The government representative who addressed the press in Sderot was aggressive and carried a Glock. His message extended beyond Hamas, suggesting that the problem extended to everyone in Gaza. These statements raise doubts about Israel’s commitment to avoiding the worst-case scenario.
One of the statements made by the government representative, which caused further concern, was his portrayal of ordinary Muslims as violent and abusive. He focused on a standard Muslim practice of sacrificing a ram on Eid al-Adha and claimed that it was meant to train killers. This misinterpretation reflects a biased view that would make it difficult for Israelis who share this perspective to allow Gazans to return. The representative stated that the sole condition for Sderot’s repopulation was the complete destruction of Hamas, raising questions about the conditions for Gazans’ return. He also advocated against having any military force in Gaza, which implies permanent occupation or annexation by Israel, potentially leading to the exclusion of Palestinians from Gaza entirely.
It is important to note that these views represent the perspective of Likud, which dominates the Israeli government. However, other elements within the government, such as the National Unity alliance, have advocated for an exit strategy from Gaza. The Likud party previously made the decision to leave Gaza because staying was worse than leaving. It remains to be seen if the current Likud party will reach the same conclusion.
While the Israelis await clear skies, the residents of Gaza City are also waiting for a hopeful change in their circumstance. The outcome immediately after the clouds part is not a mystery to them or anyone else.
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