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In the face of the climate crisis, finding ways to make wheat more resilient is becoming a pressing issue. The demand for staple crops such as wheat is expected to rise as the world’s food system becomes more vulnerable. Wheat is a crucial source of dietary fiber, making up 20% of the average global diet. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) predicts a 50% increase in wheat demand by 2050. However, wheat is highly sensitive to heat, with a tolerance limit of just 75°F (24°C), making it more vulnerable compared to crops like corn and soybeans.
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As temperatures rise and droughts become more prevalent in traditional wheat-growing regions, crop yields will decline. Scientists predict that under the worst-case scenario of a 4.3°C global temperature increase, global wheat yields could decrease by 22% annually. Even under the best-case scenario of a temperature increase of less than 2°C, global wheat yields would still decline by 7% each year. Climate change will undoubtedly have some impact on wheat production worldwide, with up to 60% of wheat-growing regions facing potential strain from prolonged drought by 2100.
The urgency to develop climate-resilient wheat varieties is driving a race against time. Currently, common wheat and Durum wheat (used for pasta) dominate global wheat production. However, scientists are now exploring forgotten wheat varieties that may possess traits ideal for breeding a new heat, drought, and disease-resistant wheat. This task is complicated by the fact that monocropping, or growing only one type of crop, is less resilient to diseases and changing weather conditions compared to growing multiple types in the same field. Hence, researchers must identify multiple wheat varieties suitable for different environments. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) plays a crucial role in this process, selecting seeds from around the world. They house approximately 800,000 unique wheat seeds in gene banks, with a quarter of them at CIMMYT. Each year, the center tests around 5,000 newly bred wheat types in collaboration with farmers. However, challenges continue to emerge, such as the impact of rising nighttime temperatures, an area that requires more research and understanding.
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