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The upcoming US elections have been a subject of my long-standing obsession. However, my recent visit to the country and conversations with insightful individuals have led me to consider a significant risk to American democracy that is not widely discussed: the potential for one or more third parties to gain enough votes to sway the election in favor of Donald Trump. While this scenario may seem implausible to many, it is important to examine and address it.
We often fixate on prominent figures like Trump and Biden, assuming that their support bases are unwavering. Yet, there is a considerable portion of the American population that does not identify with either candidate. Head-to-head polls can be misleading in this context. The real impact lies in the presence of third parties. According to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, 44% of Americans expressed openness to voting for a third party or independent candidate. Most polls suggest that third parties would likely harm Biden’s chances.
There exists a segment of leftist voters who view voting as an avenue for self-expression rather than a means of selecting those in power. For them, the right-wing does not elicit much animosity, but they harbor strong disdain for the center-left, which they frequently encounter in urban centers, universities, and especially on social media.
The Green party serves as a haven for such individuals in the US, drawing votes away from Democrats and inadvertently benefiting Republicans in pivotal elections. In the 2000 election, Ralph Nader’s 97,488 votes in Florida enabled George W. Bush to secure the state and ultimately resulted in the Iraq war. Similarly, in 2016, Jill Stein’s votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania exceeded Hillary Clinton’s margins of defeat in those states. This history challenges the assumption that far-left idealists will vote pragmatically when it truly matters.
Even though the presidential candidacy of Cornel West, a former Harvard professor, did not initially concern Democratic insiders, his decision to switch affiliation from the People’s party to the Green party has sparked attention. West is poised to surpass Stein’s 1.07% vote share from the previous election. Despite voting for Biden in 2020, West’s evolving ideology and dissatisfaction with the current state of politics suggest that he could have more impact on the upcoming election than figures like Ron DeSantis or Vivek Ramaswamy.
Another potential challenge comes from the bipartisan No Labels group, which is considering fielding a centrist presidential candidate, possibly Joe Manchin. Although this could be a tactic to extract concessions from Biden, the presence of a bipartisan candidate would likely diminish Biden’s prospects.
It is entirely possible that these third parties may ultimately amount to little, similar to the negligible impact of Green candidate Howie Hawkins in the 2020 election. By 2025, Trump could become inconsequential, relegated to seeking funds for his legal appeals. However, if he were to win, his presidency would carry far-reaching consequences. He has learned from his previous term that suppressing votes in swing states and undermining the rule of law are crucial strategies. The outcome of this election could hinge on the decisions made by individuals like Cornel West.
For more insights, follow Simon on Twitter and email him at [email protected].
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