Niger’s junta has taken bold actions that have raised the stakes in the standoff with other West African nations. They have authorized troops from neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso to defend their territory and requested the French ambassador to leave the country. The junta leader, Brig. Gen. Abdrahmane Tchiani, signed executive orders granting military support from Mali and Burkina Faso. The military regimes of these countries have warned that any use of force by the West African bloc ECOWAS against Niger’s junta would be seen as an act of war against their own nations.
The French Ambassador, Sylvain Itte, has been asked to leave Niger within 48 hours. The Nigerien Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused him of ignoring an invitation for a meeting and cited “actions of the French government contrary to the interests of Niger.” France continues to acknowledge only the authority of Niger’s elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who is currently detained by the junta.
The invitation of troops from Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as the expulsion of the French ambassador, indicates a strong alignment between the regimes of these countries and Niger. Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, suggests that this alignment signifies a shared anti-Western and pro-authoritarian orientation.
Niger was previously viewed as a major partner against jihadi violence in the Sahel region. However, the recent ousting of President Bazoum has created uncertainty, and the military leaders of the coup have reached out for assistance from the private Russian military company Wagner to combat extremist attacks. The status of this request following the death of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin is unknown. ECOWAS and the African Union have expressed their opposition to the use of private military contractors.
The junta’s agreement with Mali and Burkina Faso represents a series of actions taken by Niger’s mutinous soldiers to challenge sanctions and solidify their rule for up to three years. The ECOWAS Commission president, Omar Alieu Touray, has stated that the bloc’s threat to use force to reinstate Bazoum is still on the table, rejecting the junta’s transition plan. Eleven of the bloc’s 15 countries have expressed their commitment to deploying troops once a decision is made to intervene.
Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu sending a delegation of Islamic leaders to speak with the junta. If diplomatic means fail, West African heads of state will decide when to use force. Details of the ECOWAS “standby” force have not been disclosed, but regional officials have suggested it would be similar to the force deployed in the Gambia in 2017.
The junta has been capitalizing on grievances amongst the population towards France and has accused Bazoum’s government of failing to protect the country from Islamic extremists. They have sought help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner. In response to the coup, the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation has suspended operations in Niger, citing a violation of democratic governance principles.
ECOWAS, along with Western and European countries, has imposed sanctions on Niger, including cutting off the supply of electricity and closing borders. While these sanctions have caused socio-economic crises in Niger, Touray claims they are in the best interest of the people.
In summary, the situation in Niger remains tense as the junta defies sanctions and solidifies its rule. The possibility of military intervention is still on the table, and diplomatic efforts continue. Sanctions have taken their toll on Niger, but they are deemed necessary by ECOWAS and its partners.
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