The BRICS group, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is seeking to expand its membership to establish itself as a credible counterbalance to Western-led forums like the G7. However, the group faces challenges due to its diverse nature and potential conflicting interests. China sees BRICS as a platform to challenge American power, while Russia wants to demonstrate its loyal alliances despite its isolation from the West. India, engaged in a territorial dispute with China, is skeptical of Beijing’s dominance within the club. Brazil and South Africa want good relations with China and Russia, but they also fear alienating the United States by being overly aligned with either. As the leaders of these nations meet for their annual summit, held this time in Johannesburg, they must navigate these differences to determine whether BRICS becomes a geopolitical coalition or remains focused on financial matters.
Finding common ground becomes increasingly difficult as the geopolitical competition between China and the United States intensifies, putting pressure on other nations to choose sides. Additionally, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine affects food and energy prices for many poorer countries represented by BRICS. China aims to utilize BRICS to extend its influence in the Global South, while India is reluctant to allow this shift as it would primarily serve Chinese interests. Numerous countries have expressed interest in joining the club, including those firmly aligned with China, like Iran and Belarus, and nonaligned states such as Egypt and Kazakhstan. The expansion of BRICS will be a key topic at the summit, attended by the leaders of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, while Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin is expected to participate remotely.
China, with its significant economic power, intends to use BRICS to exhibit its own sphere of influence after President Biden’s recent summit strengthening alliances with Japan and South Korea. Beijing favors rapid expansion, showcasing widespread support from the developing world. India takes a more cautious approach, aiming to limit China’s ability to confront the West through BRICS. India’s divergence from China reflects broader tensions exacerbated by a border clash in 2020 and India’s participation in the Quad security grouping with the United States, Japan, and Australia. Brazil shares a similar position on accepting new members based on compliance with established rules.
The summit provides Russia an opportunity to enhance its relationships with the developing world. However, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei V. Lavrov, who will attend in place of President Putin, may face questions regarding Russia’s withdrawal from a United Nations-brokered deal with Ukraine, which resulted in increased food prices. BRICS members have struggled to demonstrate consensus on Russia’s war in Ukraine, with China leaning towards the Kremlin and India maintaining a strategy of nonalignment. South Africa, the smallest member of BRICS, has faced criticism for its close ties to Russia and recently attempted to assert its neutrality in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, the outcome of these talks remains uncertain. South Africa’s decision to have Putin attend the summit virtually due to his arrest warrant shows the country’s attempt to balance its alliances with the West and its relationship with Russia.
As the last country to join BRICS in 2010 at China’s invitation, South Africa must carefully navigate its alliances in both the East and the West. Despite hosting a meeting about a continental trade agreement with the United States, South Africa aims to establish itself as an influential player in the East. The expansion of BRICS and the decisions made at the summit will have significant implications for the group’s future direction and its ability to address global financial issues.
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