US officials have become increasingly critical of Ukraine’s counteroffensive strategy and are skeptical about its chances of success. This has caused tensions to deepen between Kyiv and Washington during a critical phase in the war since Russia’s invasion. Despite receiving strong support from the US, Ukraine’s progress in its counteroffensive has been slow. Experts believe that Ukraine will struggle to recapture significant territory due to the difficult terrain and dwindling combat power. This pessimism in Washington comes just before a $43 billion package of US funding for Ukraine is set to expire, forcing the Biden administration to seek congressional approval for additional assistance.
Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, stated that while the current situation is not favorable, there is no viable alternative plan. Originally, the US and Ukraine had planned a spring offensive to quickly push back Russian occupying forces. However, the lack of progress on the ground has led Kyiv to employ more traditional tactics instead of the combined arms maneuvers taught by the US and its western allies earlier this year.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed the US’s continued support for Ukraine’s counteroffensive efforts. However, he emphasized that the outcome of the war is unpredictable. While Ukraine has made some small gains this week, US officials privately anticipate a prolonged war of attrition that could extend into next year. Publicly, they maintain their support for Kyiv, but privately they are preparing for a challenging and protracted conflict.
One point of contention between US and Ukrainian officials is the deployment of Ukraine’s military. The US has urged Ukraine to take more risks and commit its forces fully to the main axis of the counteroffensive in the south. This would potentially allow Ukraine to break through Russian lines and reach the Sea of Azov, cutting off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. However, Ukraine has instead deployed some of its best fighting units in eastern Ukraine to recapture Bakhmut. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have called for the west to provide heavy weaponry and more long-range fire and air power to support their efforts.
US officials, on the other hand, have expressed concerns about escalating the conflict with Russia by supplying advanced long-range missiles. They argue that Ukraine’s focus on long-range weaponry may be misplaced, as the war is increasingly fought with artillery. Some analysts also point out that tactical ballistic missiles alone will not solve the problems Ukraine is facing.
US President Joe Biden has included funding of another $13 billion in lethal aid for Ukraine in a supplemental budget request to Congress. However, the passage of this extra funding may face challenges due to ongoing debates about government spending levels and the possibility of a shutdown of federal operations. Even if the funding is approved, it is unlikely that the US will be able to provide the same level of assistance to Ukraine next year due to the presidential election and the longer-term production schedule of munitions manufacturers.
While Biden has shown unwavering support for Ukraine, his predecessor and the Republican frontrunner for the next presidential election, Donald Trump, has pledged to end the war immediately if elected. Other Republican contenders for the 2024 nomination have expressed ambivalence towards the conflict. Recent polls indicate that a significant portion of Americans now oppose more funding for Ukraine from Congress. This represents a major shift from earlier in the conflict when there was overwhelming support for Kyiv.
Although no one in the Biden administration has ruled out the possibility of a breakthrough before winter, there is little optimism regarding the outcome of the counteroffensive. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that it will take at least a month, if not longer, to determine whether significant strategic gains can be made in terms of recovering territory.
Overall, the situation in Ukraine remains uncertain, and the success of the counteroffensive is still up in the air. The US continues to support Ukraine publicly, but privately officials are preparing for a prolonged conflict and potential challenges in providing assistance in the future.
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