Attention turns to Ukraine’s southern advance as Russia initiates its offensive

Amid the global focus on Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, Russia has quietly initiated a new offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, aiming to undermine Ukraine’s operation. The Russian advance, though smaller in scale than its winter offensive, is making progress and closing in on the city of Kupyansk, which led to Ukraine ordering an evacuation.

This Russian offensive could further strain Ukraine’s military resources and divert its attention while in the midst of a major offensive. Not only would any success be detrimental to Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, but it would also undermine the narrative of Ukraine’s supporters in the West. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized the significance of this potential Russian progress and its impact on Ukraine.

Moscow’s winter offensive concluded in March, and since then, Russian forces have primarily focused on defense against Ukraine’s counteroffensive. However, Russia has continued to engage in limited attacks throughout the 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine. The Luhansk advance has gained momentum since mid-July, with fighting mostly occurring in rural and less populated areas, resembling the situation in Zaporizhzhia.

This week, Russia has rapidly advanced towards Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, a city located just beyond Luhansk. Capturing Kupyansk would consolidate Russian control over the area. Although Russian forces have approached within artillery range northeast of the city and triggered evacuations in nearby settlements, the fight is far from over. They still face formidable defenses and must cross the Oksil River to fully capture Kupyansk.

While Russian military bloggers and state-run news sites have emphasized these developments, Western military analysts remain skeptical about Russia’s capabilities to achieve significant progress. After exhausting manpower and resources, particularly during the costly battle for Bakhmut in the spring, it is unlikely that Russia can mount a significant offensive operation until next year. However, Russian gains could serve as a political victory for President Putin and position Russian troops favorably to potentially occupy the rest of the Donbas.

Branislav Slantchev, a professor studying the war at the University of California, San Diego, highlights that a Russian success in Luhansk would not dramatically alter the overall trajectory of the war. The primary strategic focus for Russia remains in the south, where they aim to protect Crimea and maintain access to the Black Sea. Putin is also hoping to buy time and test the resolve of Western support for Ukraine. Nonetheless, a Russian victory in Luhansk would send a powerful message of Russian triumph to the international community.

Maksym Skrypchenko, the president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, expresses concerns about the political implications of a Russian victory in Luhansk. While confident in Ukraine’s defenses, he fears that a Russian advance could sway the Western alliance’s perspective on providing further military support. He also acknowledges that the Russian forces are constrained by limited resources and manpower.

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