Rapidly Rising Ocean Temperatures May Exponentially Boost Hurricane Season

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have revealed that record-high ocean temperatures could significantly enhance the upcoming hurricane season.

On Thursday, NOAA scientists increased the probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%. In May, they had previously predicted a “near-normal” season with a 30% likelihood of being above-normal. However, the revised forecast now lowers the chance of a near-normal season to just 25%, down from the initial estimate of 40% in May.

This revised outlook covers the remaining months of the six-month hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. NOAA’s forecast predicts a total of 14 to 21 named storms with winds surpassing 39 mph during the season. Of those, six to 11 storms could intensify into hurricanes with winds reaching 74 mph or more, and between two and five of those hurricanes could escalate into major hurricanes with winds surpassing 111 mph. Moreover, these estimates include the five named storms and one hurricane that have already occurred, as reported by NOAA.

A “normal” hurricane season would typically consist of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The peak period of the hurricane season, which historically encompasses 90% of all tropical storm activity, is underway from August through October. Consequently, NOAA issues a mid-season forecast revision every year.

According to Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the two major factors that will determine the intensity of this hurricane season are the El Niño weather pattern and the exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Both of these factors have historically played a critical role in hurricane forecasts, and they currently seem to be equally important. Rosencrans explained that El Niño tends to inhibit tropical storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Caribbean, whereas warmer sea surface temperatures contribute to a more active hurricane season.

The sea surface temperature in the primary region where tropical storms form in the North Atlantic has reached its warmest level since NOAA began recording in 1950. Rosencrans stated that the temperatures are 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit above the normal average.

Rosencrans highlighted the rarity of forecasting the continuation of record warm sea surface temperatures. This rarity, combined with the late development of the El Niño pattern, leads to uncertainty for the remainder of the season. The forecast team at NOAA invested hours analyzing the numbers and debating the result of their analysis to create this outlook, as per Rosencrans.

The revised estimate of 14 to 21 named storms places this year’s prediction close to last year’s count of 14, as well as relatively similar to the count of 21 named storms in 2021. In 2020, there were 30 named storms, indicating that recent years have witnessed significant storm activity. Similarly, the forecast of six to 11 hurricanes aligns with previous years, which saw eight hurricanes in 2022 and seven hurricanes in 2021.

It is important to note that these estimates solely represent the total number of storms expected to form, not the number of storms that will make landfall. Forecasts for landfall are only effective starting one week ahead, according to Rosencrans.

Rosencrans advises taking precautions and preparing for potential storms. He suggests reviewing the emergency preparedness tips provided by the federal government at Ready.gov and the local emergency management website for your region. It is crucial to prepare early and have a plan in case an evacuation is ordered.