A Ukrainian soldier from the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, named after King Danylo, is conducting a test flight of a new FPV drone in the training area amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on August 03, 2023. This summer, Kyiv initiated a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russia, raising hopes for a turnaround in the conflict. However, it has become evident that the counteroffensive will not yield immediate results, and there is no guarantee of success in terms of reclaiming Russian-occupied territory.
Experts in the military field warn that this indicates a prolonged war, which will put immense pressure on Ukraine to continue fighting for several more years. Additionally, Ukraine’s international partners will be required to contribute billions of dollars more in military, humanitarian, and financial resources. Retired British Gen. Richard Barrons, former commander of the U.K.’s Joint Forces Command, explains that both sides are likely to believe they have more to gain from fighting by the end of this year. Russia cannot afford to lose, considering the dire consequences for the regime, while Ukraine remains determined to reclaim the occupied territory with additional assistance.
Barrons further highlights that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will make some progress throughout the rest of this year but not enough to end the occupation. He estimates that it will require a significant effort, with at least $100 billion annually in support from all its allies in 2024 and 2025.
The Russian forces have fortified their positions along the 600-mile front line, using an extensive network of defensive structures, including mines, bunkers, trenches, and anti-tank obstacles. While Ukraine has managed to recapture a few villages since the counteroffensive began, breaking through Russian defenses to advance towards the port cities of Berdyansk and Melitopol remains a monumental challenge.
Nick Reynolds, a research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, explains that the extensive fortifications created by the Russian armed forces presented a formidable obstacle for the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian Air Force’s inability to operate over Russian lines further complicates the situation. Ukraine’s main objective is to sever the Russian “land bridge” connecting Russia to Crimea through occupied southern Ukraine, but this region poses the heaviest fortifications.
Defense experts believe that the counteroffensive is unlikely to achieve any breakthroughs this year. However, Ukraine must demonstrate some significant gains to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 and beyond. Former senior NATO official Jamie Shea emphasizes the importance of at least cutting the Russian forces in two to sustain hope and justify continued support from NATO and the United States. Stalemate, with little territorial gain and heavy casualties, would undermine Ukraine’s position and potentially discourage funding and arms supplies from the West.
While the conflict shows no sign of nearing a resolution, Ukraine’s allies remain committed to supporting it, and Russia shows no signs of giving up. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have proven difficult, with Russia notably absent from recent discussions among senior officials from various countries. The prospect of an armistice, a temporary cessation of military operations, without a decisive end to the war, is one potential resolution that Ukraine may consider.
Overall, the war between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue for several more years, necessitating significant support and resources. The outcome remains uncertain, but Ukraine must strive for tangible progress to maintain international backing and explore potential alternative solutions to the conflict.
Denial of responsibility! VigourTimes is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
