The recent election in Cambodia was largely viewed as one-sided, with Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Cambodian People’s Party expected to secure a landslide victory. Despite the presence of 17 other parties on the ballot, the CPP is anticipated to replicate its 2018 performance, where it won all 125 seats in the National Assembly. The ban of the Candlelight Party, the CPP’s main rival, by the National Election Committee in May further solidified Hun Sen’s attempts to eliminate opposition to his rule. This has involved shutting down media outlets, harassing and arresting political opponents, and ousting human rights watchdogs from the country.
These actions have led to an election that international observers consider to be in name only. Many citizens feel compelled to participate even if their preferred party is not on the ballot. While Washington has imposed sanctions on Cambodian officials, and the European Union has partially withdrawn trade tariffs, Hun Sen has strengthened ties with China as a means to evade the consequences.
This election, the seventh since the United Nations-administered vote in 1993, represents a significant decline in Cambodian democracy. According to Sophal Ear, an associate dean and professor at Arizona State University, the democratic process has been eroded since 2018, with the dissolution of the rival Cambodia National Rescue Party and the restriction of independent media being major blows. Hun Sen, however, is keen to drive high voter turnout, as it serves as an “important indicator of political legitimacy.”
Amendments to Cambodia’s electoral laws criminalize spoiling a ballot or advocating for an election boycott, with potential consequences including future candidacy restrictions. Several members of the Candlelight Party have already been arrested under these laws, while other opposition figures have been convicted in absentia and banned from holding office. Despite the lack of real choice, voters turned out in large numbers, faced with the pressure to participate in the election.
This election also sets the stage for a generational power transition, with a quarter of CPP candidates having familial ties to current administration members. Hun Sen’s eldest son, Hun Manet, is positioned to take over as his designated heir. With a background in the military and a Western education, some speculate that Hun Manet may recalibrate Cambodia’s relationship with the United States and other Western nations. However, there is also skepticism that Hun Sen will continue to exert influence from behind the scenes.
Nearly 9.7 million Cambodians were eligible to vote in the election, with preliminary results expected on Sunday evening, according to the National Election Committee. However, given the nature of the election, these results are unlikely to reflect the true will of the Cambodian people.
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