Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has made his first public appearance following a mercenary uprising that demanded his removal. In a video released by the Defense Ministry, Shoigu is seen inspecting troops in Ukraine, aiming to project a sense of order after a chaotic weekend.
Shoigu is one of three influential Russian military leaders whose conflicting interests led to a mutiny. Armed rebels seized a Russian city and marched towards the capital. However, the uprising was short-lived as Wagner Group mercenaries, who had ventured into Russia from Ukraine, turned back after less than 24 hours.
The video of Shoigu’s appearance was widely shown on Russian media, including state-controlled television. It is unclear when the footage was filmed. The other two military leaders, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov, have not been seen or heard from since the uprising. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also remained absent from public view.
Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced the end of the “counter-terrorism regime” imposed on the city during the uprising. The Defense Ministry released a video showing Shoigu flying in a helicopter and attending a meeting with military officers at a Ukrainian military headquarters. This is the first time Shoigu has been seen since Prigozhin declared a “march of justice” to remove him and Gerasimov.
The rebellion came to an end when Prigozhin ordered his troops to retreat. The Kremlin stated that a deal was made for Prigozhin to move to Belarus and receive amnesty, along with his soldiers. This mutiny posed the most significant challenge to President Putin in his 20 years of rule.
The aftermath of the uprising has left many questioning the stability of Russia’s leadership. Observers believe that Putin’s lack of intervention in the feud between Prigozhin and the military leaders may have encouraged the revolt. Former head of Britain’s MI6 intelligence agency, Alex Younger, remarked that “neither side was in control” during the rebellion, and everyone involved has come out weaker.
The possibility of a leadership shakeup has been widely speculated. Russian media and commentators suggest that Putin may replace Shoigu with Alexei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region. However, Putin is known for avoiding hasty decisions and is likely to wait before announcing any changes.
The mutiny by Prigozhin was not an attempt to seize power but rather a desperate move in response to his escalating conflict with Russia’s military leadership. It is unlikely that Prigozhin has a political future in Russia under Putin’s rule.
The rupture between Prigozhin and the top military brass can be traced back to Russia’s intervention in Syria, where Wagner Group was active. The tensions reached a boiling point during the battles in Bakhmut. The U.S. had intelligence indicating that Prigozhin had been amassing forces near the Russian border, suggesting that the rebellion was planned in advance.
The fallout from the rebellion has raised questions about the impact on the ongoing war in Ukraine. It has resulted in the withdrawal of some of Russia’s most effective forces, including Wagner troops and Chechen soldiers who were sent to confront them. The rapid advance of Wagner forces exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s security and military apparatus.
International reactions to the events in Russia have been cautious. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg described it as an internal Russian matter, while EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell suggested that the revolt was a sign of cracks in Russia’s political system.
Overall, the uprising and its aftermath have created uncertainty about Russia’s leadership and its implications for the war in Ukraine. The situation is fluid, and the long-term consequences remain unclear.
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