Reform UK, the Right-of-centre party led by Richard Tice, is expected to win 5% of the national vote in the upcoming election. The number of candidates they field could potentially impact the re-election of prominent Tory MPs. Unlike Nigel Farage, who withdrew the Brexit Party from marginal Conservative-held seats in 2019, Richard Tice plans to contest all constituencies.
If Reform UK were to field a candidate in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson could potentially lose his seat. The same goes for Ms Mordaunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Lee Anderson. However, if Tice decides to withdraw his candidates in these areas, all four would have a better chance of retaining their seats.
On the other hand, the data presents less promising news for the Labour party. Their polling lead is falling across the board, with some voters returning to the Conservatives after the political turmoil of the previous year.
‘Going to Labour by default’
Luke Tryl, UK director at the More in Common group, highlights that people are currently leaning towards Labour by default rather than out of genuine support for the party.
However, if the situation improves and the Labour Party’s positive offer fails to convince voters, the challenges may increase. While Sir Keir Starmer has been praised for being different from Corbyn, he still needs to clearly present his vision for the country.
According to Tryl, the public’s perception of Starmer is lukewarm, and he has yet to articulate a compelling plan to address the broken state of the nation. The opposition’s lack of a clear solution contributes to this sentiment.
The voters also have a mixed view of Chancellor Rishi Sunak. While many consider him competent, some view him as weak and criticize his handling of the cost of living crisis.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice raises concerns that none of the major parties have presented a long-term agenda for the country beyond the next parliament.
“We are currently in a peculiar moment in our politics where none of the three political leaders can articulate their vision for the country in 2030,” says Curtice.
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