A groundbreaking global study warns that without intervention, the rates of diabetes will surge in every country over the next 30 years. Currently, there are 529 million people in the world living with diabetes, but by 2050, that number is expected to more than double to around 1.3 billion individuals, according to researchers at the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
The majority of these cases are type 2 diabetes, a form of the disease that is closely linked to obesity and can largely be prevented, the researchers explain.
The increase in diabetes prevalence is not evenly distributed across countries and regions. By 2050, prevalence rates are projected to reach 16.8 percent in North Africa and the Middle East, and 11.3 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, compared to the estimated global average of 9.8 percent. Currently, global prevalence stands at 6.1 percent. However, every country will be affected by this alarming rise in diabetes cases, the researchers emphasize.
“The rapid rate at which diabetes is growing is not only alarming but also challenging for every health system in the world,” says Liane Ong, the lead author of the study. She emphasizes that diabetes is associated with various heart conditions, such as heart disease and stroke.
The growing number of people with diabetes is driven by both rising obesity rates and demographic shifts, with higher prevalence observed among older adults, according to the study. The data does not account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as those numbers were not yet available.
Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the study is part of a broader series on diabetes published in The Lancet. The series calls for more effective mitigation strategies and increased awareness of inequality, as the majority of diabetes patients reside in low- and middle-income countries without proper access to treatment.
– Reporting by Jennifer Rigby; Editing by Aurora Ellis
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