Potential Hurricane Bret Forecasted to Gain Strength

Tropical Storm Bret, the second named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it heads towards the Lesser Antilles, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forming 1,300 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, Bret is currently moving west at 17 miles per hour towards the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center predicts this general motion will continue for the next several days.

While there is uncertainty about the exact path and impact, areas like the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands could experience risks such as heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge. However, the storm is expected to weaken once it reaches the Caribbean.

Following Bret, another storm system is brewing and may develop into the third named storm of the season, Cindy. Currently, the storm has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Once winds reach 74 mph, it will become a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center anticipates Bret to approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week. As of now, there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interestingly, Bret is actually the third tropical cyclone to reach tropical storm strength this year. In May, the National Hurricane Center confirmed a storm off the northeastern United States in mid-January as a subtropical storm, making it the first cyclone of the year. However, the storm was not retroactively named, making Arlene, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 2, the first named storm in the Atlantic basin this year.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will continue until November 30.

In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a “near-normal” amount of 12 to 17 named storms for this year. However, NOAA expressed uncertainty in its forecast, with a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, 30 percent chance of an above-normal season, and another 30 percent chance of a below-normal season.

Factors contributing to potential storm activity include above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and the possibility of an above-normal West African monsoon. El Niño, which has also arrived this month, may reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes. This combination of El Niño and above-average ocean temperatures is quite rare, according to Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA.

El Niño increases wind shear in the Atlantic, making it less likely for hurricanes to form. However, in a warming world, the chances of major hurricanes making landfall are increasing. Scientists agree that climate change is making hurricanes more powerful. Additionally, climate change affects rainfall patterns during storms, with warmer air holding more moisture. Storms have also been observed to slow down over the past few decades, increasing the amount of rain they can produce in a single location.

For example, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 dumped over 40 inches of rain in less than 48 hours in Texas. The combination of increased wind shear caused by El Niño and the effects of climate change on storm behavior highlights the need for ongoing research and preparedness in the face of Atlantic hurricanes.