An unprecedented heatwave has engulfed northern India in the past four days, resulting in a higher-than-usual number of deaths in hospitals in Uttar Pradesh. Doctors believe that the scorching temperatures are directly responsible for the fatalities, although officials are conducting an investigation to determine the role of heat and humidity in the mortality rate.
In Ballia District, which has a population of approximately three million, the daily high temperature has exceeded the usual average by nine degrees Celsius, reaching around 43 degrees Celsius (109 degrees Fahrenheit). Additionally, the relative humidity has soared to 53 percent. On June 15, 16, and 17, hospitals in the district reported dozens of deaths.
Dr. Jayant Kumar, the chief medical officer of Ballia District, stated that 23 people died in the district on Thursday, followed by 11 more deaths the next day. He emphasized that the number of deaths has surpassed the normal rate. He attributed most of the deaths to natural causes, primarily affecting elderly individuals with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes.
Government officials in India, however, have urged caution in directly linking the deaths to the extreme heat. Dr. Diwakar Singh, the former chief medical superintendent of Ballia District, initially reported that 34 people died from heatstroke at the main hospital. However, he faced repercussions from the state government for prematurely drawing this conclusion and was subsequently removed from his position. To investigate the causes, a scientific team from the capital city, Lucknow, has been dispatched by the government.
Dr. Singh’s replacement, Dr. S.K. Yadav, took a more cautious approach, acknowledging that elderly patients with chronic conditions like hypertension and diabetes were succumbing to the heat. He agreed with Dr. Kumar’s assessment that the excessive heat played a significant role in the increased death toll.
Although a significant number of patients have been admitted for heat-related distress, Dr. Yadav assured that they have sufficient beds, doctors, and medicines to cater to everyone’s needs. The alarming prospect of mass deaths resulting from sudden rises in temperatures has become more prevalent in recent years. This phenomenon in India serves as a warning for other regions around the world.
The heat in this part of India has approached the critical “wet-bulb temperature,” which is the threshold beyond which the human body cannot cool itself by perspiration alone. Experts define this threshold as 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), taking into account the maximum humidity level. On Saturday, Ballia recorded a wet-bulb temperature of 34.15 degrees Celsius (approximately 93 degrees Fahrenheit).
Scientists warn that as climate change continues, heatwaves like this one will become more common across India’s historically hot plains, leading to a higher incidence of deaths, particularly among older and infirm individuals. The question remains whether these are considered “excess deaths” that can only be measured statistically or if India’s increasingly unbearable weather directly causes them, potentially through heat stroke.
Local newspapers have reported as many as 54 deaths in Ballia and an additional 44 deaths in Bihar over the past three days, according to various officials and hospitals. In April, during peak temperatures in Maharashtra, at least 11 individuals died from heat stroke.
In areas like the particularly humid city of Kolkata, the limit of human survivability to heat with only perspiration for cooling is frequently surpassed. This raises questions as to why more deaths from heat are not observed in India. The gradual increase in wet-bulb temperatures in South Asia has become a cause for global concern in recent years. It even made its way into literature, as depicted in the science-fiction novel “The Ministry for the Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson, which envisions a scenario where an intense heatwave claims the lives of 20 million Indian citizens within one week, altering history drastically.
Typically, the region experiences its hottest weather in June. A cyclonic storm similar to a hurricane recently swept through India’s western coast, and its accompanying rains are expected to reach Uttar Pradesh and Bihar within the next two days. This should bring relief and lower temperatures. Following the storm, the annual monsoon is anticipated in the region.
The official diagnosis of last week’s excess deaths by the medical team from Lucknow may not explicitly mention heat stroke. Nonetheless, it may resemble previous deadly heatwaves, such as the one that claimed 700 lives in Chicago in July 1995 or the European heatwave in August 2003, which resulted in tens of thousands of deaths.
What remains indisputable is that increasingly common extreme weather conditions worldwide are causing premature death in larger numbers than in cooler times.
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