Why Europe’s Refugee Crisis Won’t Be Resolved by Courting Middle Eastern Autocrats

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The writer is the author of ‘Black Wave’

Europe’s approach to curbing the flow of refugees across the Mediterranean is inadvertently empowering Arab autocrats, disregarding their governance and human rights track record. These leaders gladly portray themselves as partners, claiming to be the sole protectors of Europe’s southern border in exchange for financial support.

Ironically, it is often the oppressive rule of these leaders that compels thousands of individuals from the Middle East and North Africa to flee their homes and embark on treacherous journeys.

In the US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment published in February, Tunisia was highlighted as a significant problem in the region. The report emphasized the risk of a severe breakdown in stability due to President Kais Saied’s consolidation of governing authority.

Since then, Saied has effectively dismantled democracy in Tunisia, inciting racist sentiment and violence against sub-Saharan migrants, which has exacerbated the refugee crisis. Human rights organizations have accused Tunisia of abandoning migrants in the desert on its border with Libya, resulting in deaths from dehydration. Additionally, skilled Tunisians are increasingly emigrating.

Despite these concerning developments, the EU recently entered into a strategic partnership with Tunisia, primarily focused on combating illegal migration and reducing departures, while also offering substantial economic development aid. Further financial assistance is contingent on Saied implementing reforms urged by the IMF.

International support and financial aid can play a crucial role in assisting communities hosting refugees, enabling the creation of economic opportunities that can discourage migration. However, the current EU approach inadvertently rewards Saied’s authoritarianism and economic mismanagement.

Italy’s right-wing prime minister Giorgia Meloni has similarly pursued a relationship with General Khalifa Haftar, the de facto ruler of eastern Libya, seeking his cooperation to prevent departures from Libya. Haftar, a warlord, is rumored to have connections with human smugglers. France’s President Emmanuel Macron even bestowed the Légion d’honneur, the country’s highest decoration, upon Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who has lavishly invested in vanity projects while the Egyptian economy plummets.

While Europe endeavors to keep refugees and migrants out, it expects Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey to indefinitely host millions of refugees. In Lebanon, the refugee population is estimated to make up 25% of the country’s total population, compared to only 1.5% in Europe. It is crucial to recognize the impact of such large refugee populations on the stability and social fabric of smaller countries like Lebanon and Jordan. However, as long as Syrians are not flocking to Europe in large numbers as they did in 2014, Europeans appear content to overlook the ongoing crisis in Syria.

The long-term interests of Europe and the West are best served by promoting democracy and good governance in the global south. Policymakers must navigate the present circumstances rather than wishful thinking about different leaders. Supportive measures toward dictators only perpetuate their rule, creating a destructive cycle.

There is no straightforward solution to maintain short to medium-term stability while simultaneously fostering democracy and good governance in the long run. It demands visionary and sustained policies that address complex issues amid public attention spans dictated by short electoral cycles and populist influences. Unfortunately, temporary fixes are becoming the norm in an era of policy gridlock across various challenges, including climate change, which will exacerbate the migration crisis.

In June, the EU announced its intention to explore the idea of blocking out the sun as a means of mitigating global warming, diverting attention from emission reduction efforts. “Solar radiation modification” carries its own risks and is considered by some experts as science fiction, much like the illusory stability promised by dictators.