When it comes to analyzing economic and real estate trends, “Numerology” searches for truth within the various measurements.
Eminent Migration: In 2021, a staggering 841,065 former Californians relocated to new destinations. This outflow surpasses the population of Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, and the District of Columbia.
Reliable Source: To determine where these ex-Californians may significantly impact their new home state, I examined the most recent state-to-state migration data from the Census Bureau.
Logical Calculation: What kind of influence can all these ex-Californians potentially have?
Overview
Let’s start by looking at the raw number of relocations.
The top destination for ex-Californians was Texas, with 107,546 individuals making the move in 2021. Following closely behind were Arizona with 69,432, Nevada with 62,437, Washington with 57,576, Oregon with 51,623, Florida with 37,464, Colorado with 33,648, New York with 31,335, Georgia with 28,908, Idaho with 27,193, and Utah with 23,219.
Note: Seven out of these top 10 states are located west of the Mississippi River.
In contrast, Delaware had the lowest number of ex-Californians at just 116. It was followed by West Virginia with 368, Vermont with 1,043, North Dakota with 1,525, and South Dakota with 1,670.
Specifics
Let’s compare these major relocations to the populations of their respective states. This will give us an idea of the likelihood of encountering an ex-Californian from the class of 2021.
In Nevada, there is a 50-to-1 chance that a resident moved there from California in 2021. With 62,437 Californian transplants and a state population of 3.11 million, this means there is approximately one ex-Californian for every 50 Nevadans. No other state had a higher inflow of Californians.
Leaving California: What state is the best bargain?
On my scorecard of ex-California influence, Idaho follows with 69-to-1 odds, then Oregon with 82-to-1, Hawaii with 89-to-1, and Arizona with 104-to-1.
Let’s now consider California’s main economic competitors. The odds of a Texan being a former Californian from the class of 2021 are 271-to-1, ranking 15th highest. In Florida, the odds are 576-to-1, ranking 34th.
And where is it most challenging to find this group of ex-Californians?
Delaware takes the top spot with odds of 8,575-to-1, followed by West Virginia with 4,804-to-1, Kentucky with 1,716-to-1, Alabama with 1,481-to-1, and Louisiana with 1,333-to-1.
The Bottom Line
When Californians leave, they often don’t venture far from the West.
Consider the California outflow as a proportion of a state’s overall inflow from other parts of the nation.
Again, Nevada claims the top position with California accounting for 47% of its 132,648 interstate arrivals. Oregon follows with 39%, Idaho with 28%, and Arizona and Washington state with 26%.
Rivals? Texas ranks 8th with 18.2%, and Florida comes in 38th at 5.6%.
Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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