Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves a cemetery before the funeral of Russian military blogger Maxim Fomin widely known by the name of Vladlen Tatarsky, who was recently killed in a bomb attack in a St Petersburg cafe, in Moscow, Russia, April 8, 2023.
Yulia Morozova | Reuters
Yevgeny Prigozhin, once a close ally and caterer to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been exiled to Belarus after leading his private mercenary group in an armed mutiny against the Russian military.
In a stunning turn of events, Wagner Group rebels shot down Russian fighter jets and seized control of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don. However, Prigozhin managed to strike a deal that allowed him to flee the country and put an end to the militia’s march on Moscow.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has confirmed that Prigozhin is now in Belarus, and he has offered accommodation to other Wagner mercenaries at an abandoned naval base if they choose to join him.
Analysts suggest that this uprising could be the most damaging moment of Putin’s 23-year rule, and they believe it won’t be the last we hear from Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, which recruits thousands of former convicts from Russian jails.
Despite the apparent amnesty granted to halt the offensive, Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, stated that Prigozhin’s life is at risk.
There is uncertainty surrounding the details of the deal between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, leaving analysts wondering about the future of the Wagner Group and its leader.
The Russian security service has stated that they will not prosecute the Wagner Group. However, Putin, in a televised address, mentioned that the organizers of the rebellion will be “brought to justice” without specifically naming Prigozhin.
According to Fred Kempe, CEO of Atlantic Council, this is not the end for either Putin or Prigozhin and there are still many unknowns regarding Prigozhin’s banishment.
The recent events have exposed a long-standing feud between Prigozhin and the Russian armed forces. While Wagner’s involvement in Ukraine played a crucial role in the Russian war effort, Prigozhin has been publicly criticizing the Kremlin’s military leadership in recent months, holding them responsible for the losses suffered by his mercenaries.
According to Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global politics research at TS Lombard, Prigozhin’s criticisms have resonated with Russian society, potentially turning public sentiment against the war.
Prigozhin’s hardline stance on the war has captured the attention of both anti-war activists and those loyal to Putin’s system. This internal division could create opportunities for power struggles and potentially lead to more attempts to seize control.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul believes that Putin cannot afford to let Prigozhin remain silent in Belarus, as he has gained sudden popularity. McFaul suspects that further actions will be taken against Prigozhin.
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