This week, the news of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s alleged death brought attention to the founder of mercenary group Wagner. Prior to his reported demise, Prigozhin released a publicity video in which he appeared confident and proud, dressed in desert camouflage and holding a rifle. He declared his commitment to “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa more free.”
Soon after, Russian state media and Wagner itself confirmed Prigozhin’s death in a plane crash, which also claimed the lives of Dmitry Utkin, often referred to as a co-founder of Wagner, and other high-ranking members of the group. Western countries immediately raised questions about Vladimir Putin’s role and the implications of Prigozhin’s death for Wagner and Russian politics.
Prigozhin’s demise raises several other inquiries, such as how Russia will maintain its influence in Africa. African governments will evaluate Russia’s competition with the West and Moscow’s aspirations in Africa at a time when the continent’s abundant oil, gas, and critical rare minerals are highly sought after.
Wagner’s notable entry into Africa occurred in 2018 when it dispatched trainers and combat units to the Central African Republic, providing crucial support to the country’s president in his fight against rebel forces. In exchange, the mercenary group gained access to valuable mining sites, although it faced accusations of committing atrocities. This security-for-resources exchange became a model repeated in other instances as Russia confronted Western sanctions.
As the connection between Wagner and Moscow became more apparent, the group expanded its operations in the Sahel, a vast desert region spanning from the Red Sea to the Atlantic Ocean. Russian officials stated that Moscow’s interest in this area stemmed from its desire to address the fallout caused by Western intervention in Libya in 2011, which led to the state’s collapse and the proliferation of weapons and armed groups across the Sahel. This region is now plagued by jihadist organizations, such as al-Qaida and Islamic State-backed groups, as well as vigilante militias.
However, instead of promoting security or fostering freedom, Wagner formed alliances with oppressive and brutal partners in the region, particularly those controlling valuable resources. In recent years, the group provided oil protection services and military assistance to Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, who destabilized the country further in 2019 with his attempt to seize the capital, Tripoli. Wagner also supported a paramilitary faction of Sudan’s army responsible for killing pro-democracy protesters in 2019, seizing gold mines, and igniting a civil war this year. Though Wagner fought against jihadists as part of a military junta in Mali, these campaigns resulted in the deaths of hundreds of unarmed civilians.
If Wagner has indeed contributed to greater insecurity in the region, it might serve Moscow’s larger objective of undermining Western interests in the Sahel. As the security and humanitarian crisis in the region escalated, citizens in some capital cities expressed their anger by burning French flags and displaying Russian ones. They denounced their governments’ corruption and incompetence, fueled by Prigozhin’s online trolls.
Following Prigozhin’s death, it is uncertain what the future holds for Wagner. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, indicated that he expects Wagner to continue its operations in Africa in some form. Whether the group will be absorbed into the Russian state, held accountable to Putin, or disbanded and replaced by another entity remains unclear. Nevertheless, Russia will undoubtedly strive to maintain its influence in Africa.
Western governments should take advantage of Putin’s constraints due to the war in Ukraine, which may limit their ability to replicate Wagner’s activities as a freewheeling private military company. However, they must not become complacent in their efforts.
The declining popularity of France in the Sahel can partly be attributed to the lack of a meaningful economic plan to accompany its counter-terrorism operations. Political engagement aimed at incentivizing and supporting Malian elites to reform and address the country’s governance problems was impossible without such a plan. Similarly, Europe’s efforts to curb migration from the Sahel resulted in pressure on Niger’s civilian government to crack down on human trafficking, an important source of regional income. However, this pressure was not matched with the necessary investment to provide alternatives for the disillusioned youth.
It is crucial for the West to address this development deficit if it wishes to regain credibility in the eyes of many Africans. The current policies considered by Western capitals risk exacerbating the situation. If Wagner is designated as a foreign terrorist organization, it may discourage humanitarian agencies from providing much-needed aid to countries collaborating with the mercenary group. Additionally, a tentative plan to invade Niger and remove the junta could further destabilize the Sahel, ensuring Wagner or its successor remains in business. The people of the Sahel deserve better than to be pawns in a violent and cynical game of great power competition.
In conclusion, the reported death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and its implications for the Wagner group and Russian politics have raised significant questions. Russia’s influence in Africa and the competition between Russia and the West are crucial considerations for African governments, given the continent’s vast resources. Wagner’s activities in Africa have not brought security or freedom but have instead aligned with repressive allies controlling valuable resources. It is essential for Western governments to address the development deficit in the Sahel and avoid policies that may worsen the situation. The focus should be on promoting stability and offering meaningful economic engagement to win back African trust and credibility.
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