Restoring the rule of law in Poland won’t be an easy feat, but it is a crucial first step. Despite the ruling rightwing party, Law and Justice (PiS), winning the unfair election, they will likely struggle to form a government either alone or in coalition with the far-right Konfederacja party.
The new government will likely consist of three groups: the centrist-liberal Civic Coalition, led by Donald Tusk, the centrist Third Way, and the Left, an alliance of leftist parties and movements. While they have differences on economic and climate action issues, they agree on important matters such as Poland’s place in the EU, restoring the rule of law, support for Ukraine, and defense against Russia. This provides hope that they can work together to rebuild the country.
However, there will undoubtedly be obstacles along the way. President Andrzej Duda, an ally of PiS, will likely give them the first chance at forming a government. PiS will attempt to negotiate and entice opposition politicians to form a majority. This will create weeks of uncertainty as PiS signals their potential to regain power. But it is highly likely that any new PiS government will lose a vote of confidence in the new parliament, resulting in the opposition appointing a prime minister.
Even if a center-left coalition government takes charge, restoring the rule of law will be a difficult task. The country is deeply divided after eight years of PiS rule. There are numerous obstacles in place, some created by the democratic process and others intentionally installed by PiS to hinder removal from state institutions. Thankfully, the 1997 Polish constitution remains intact, as PiS lacked the votes required to alter it.
The biggest challenge will be President Duda, who holds the power of legislative veto over parliament’s passed legislation. While parliament can overthrow this veto, the current opposition lacks the votes to do so. This means that Tusk and his allies will have to negotiate with Duda or delay significant reforms until the next presidential election.
Another barrier is the captured institutions, such as the constitutional tribunal and the national council of the judiciary, both filled with PiS loyalists. These institutions can impede efforts to rebuild the Polish legal system, with the constitutional tribunal able to annul laws incompatible with the constitution, and the council of the judiciary appointing PiS loyalist judges through recommendations to Duda. Reforming these institutions will require legislation that Duda can veto.
Therefore, the road to restoring democracy, where the rule of law and human rights are upheld, will be challenging for Poland. However, this election marks an important first step towards that goal.
On the other hand, the election results bring hope for women and minority groups who have been targeted by PiS. Over the past eight years, they have faced violations of human rights and hate speech from those in power. President Duda, supported by PiS, has even dehumanized LGBTQ+ individuals, referring to them as an ideology rather than people.
The strict abortion ban imposed by the constitutional tribunal in 2020 sparked mass protests, with hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets under the Women’s Strike movement. However, these protests did not prevent further curtailment of rights, resulting in tragic outcomes for women.
Additionally, the construction of a fence on the Polish-Belarusian border to stop migrants has led to the violation of international refugee law and irreversible damage to protected natural areas.
These examples highlight the need for change, and the combined opposition has emphasized that voting for any of their parties would help dislodge the united right. The Civic Coalition, Third Way, and Left party are expected to come together and fight for the rights of women and minority groups if they form the next government.
The battle may be over, but the work ahead is still challenging. However, there is enough support for progressive aspirations to break the cycle of vitriol and polarization. Restoring peace and rebuilding a democratic society will be the focus for the next four years. While PiS may have survived, their grip on power appears to be slipping for now, bringing a sense of relief to many.
In conclusion, the election results signify Poland’s desire to align with the West rather than the East. The Polish society has clearly rejected politicians who battle with the European Union and advocate for closer ties with Russia. The pro-western track chosen 34 years ago after the Cold War continues to resonate with the voters. The high voter turnout only further emphasizes the potency of this message.
Despite the dirty tricks employed by PiS to regain power, the liberal opposition parties are likely to form a coalition government, taking Poland back on a pro-western path. However, they will face challenges in cohabitating with President Duda, who supports PiS, and rebuilding public institutions that have been severely affected by ill-conceived reforms. Politics is never an easy task, especially in Poland.
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