The Ukraine crisis represents a significant failure of the post-Cold War international system, which was an unfortunate missed opportunity. In the optimistic days of 1989-1991, the demise of the USSR, an incredibly oppressive empire, was celebrated as the “end of history,” ushering in a new era of liberal hegemony based on reason. However, as Francis Fukuyama, the author who coined the phrase, warned, the void left by communism’s demise quickly became occupied by equally sinister ideologies, not only in poorer nations but also in some of the world’s most powerful states.
The first wake-up call came with the emergence of Islamist extremism following the tragic events of 9/11. This phenomenon was initially seen as a marginal rebellion, something that could be suppressed through force and political education. The assumption was that the great powers, who shaped the world’s future, were gradually converging toward democratic capitalism.
However, we now know that this was an arrogant misconception. The Chinese Communist Party realized that it could accumulate wealth while retaining its grip on power and even rivaling America’s strategic superiority. On the other hand, Russia’s current threat stems from its failure to develop a modern economy.
In the West, including the United States, there has been an unfortunate descent into self-loathing, influenced by a toxic woke ideology that exaggerates weaknesses, diminishes successes, and fosters division rather than unity.
Russia’s failure to embrace liberal democratic capitalism, combined with America and Europe’s overly optimistic belief that Moscow’s flawed and corrupt post-communist economic model would generate wealth and prosperity through genuinely competitive free markets, has proven to be a grave error.
Russia’s economy heavily relies on resource extraction and exports, leading to immense military spending and foreign adventures. However, an absence of diversification has resulted in stagnation and corruption, motivating people to drop out of education or leave the country. Despite its vast geographical size, Russia’s population is now not much bigger than France and Germany combined. Moreover, it suffered a significant loss of over a million people in 2021 alone, indicating a failure to effectively control Covid.
The myth propagated by Vladimir Putin and some misguided Westerners is that capitalism ravaged the former USSR, and Putin saved it from the looters. According to this narrative, his actions in bullying Ukraine are a demonstration of restored Soviet-era authority. However, the reality is that Putin’s regime is authoritarian, fearing for its own survival. It calculates that it can act with impunity due to weak leadership in America and Europe’s dependence on Russian energy imports.
In essence, we have also failed to properly implement democratic capitalism. We have failed to articulate a compelling case for our supposed beliefs, neglected investment in alliances, and disregarded the long-term consequences of self-destructive policy choices.
This failure is evident in the recent intervention of over 30 Conservative MPs and peers, criticizing the UK Government’s ban on fracking as foolish and dangerous. This ban represented a missed opportunity to enhance energy supply, mitigate consumer price hikes, and create well-paid jobs, particularly in the Red Wall area. The same can be said for nuclear and gas exploration. Why did we allow a particular interpretation of environmentalism to lead us to reject domestically-produced energy and instead rely heavily on an aggressive and hostile power for our gas needs?
Regardless of the outcome of the current crisis, one thing is clear: Moscow and Beijing will not become like us anytime soon. We must accept the regrettable reality that we are entering a new phase of global ideological divergence.
In the short term, the West must impose the most severe sanctions possible if Russia invades Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether the NATO alliance is capable of fulfilling its deterrence role. However, events in Hong Kong, Georgia, Belarus, and Crimea suggest that NATO is ineffective in protecting those outside its orbit. This calls for the formation of a new global alliance of free nations, less centered on the West and more resilient in the face of economic challenges. This way, when conflicts arise, transgressors can be isolated without jeopardizing our own well-being.
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