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After enduring over two years of arduous negotiations, the Biden administration is finally making headway in de-escalating tensions with Iran, securing the release of imprisoned US nationals, and potentially resolving the long-standing nuclear crisis.
Recently, Iran moved four Iranian-US citizens, including businessmen Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargi, and Morad Tahbaz, from Tehran’s notorious Evin prison to house arrest as the first step in a prisoner swap agreement. Eventually, these detainees, along with another dual national currently under house arrest, will be free to leave Iran. As part of the deal, the United States will allow Tehran access to $6 billion of its frozen oil funds in South Korea and release five Iranian prisoners.
While this agreement may raise concerns of hostage diplomacy and the potential for further exploitation of human pawns by the Iranian regime, the release of these dual nationals is a positive development. Namazi, Shargi, and Tahbaz had been unjustly held in Evin for eight and five years, respectively, on unfounded spying charges.
A successful prisoner exchange could foster a modicum of trust where none currently exists and support efforts to contain the escalating nuclear crisis that unfolded after former US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal signed with global powers.
US and Iranian officials have engaged in discussions on other de-escalatory measures, including capping Iran’s uranium enrichment levels and increasing cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Additionally, the US is urging Iran to halt the sale of armed drones to Moscow, which Russian forces have utilized in the conflict in Ukraine. In exchange, the US may overlook Iranian oil exports, which have been hindered by sanctions.
Although these discussions remain ongoing and are not intended to generate a new nuclear deal, they represent progress by limiting Iran’s current nuclear capabilities, which could exacerbate tensions in the Middle East. Currently, Iran is enriching uranium at its highest levels ever and possesses the capacity to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb within two weeks if it chooses to do so.
Allowing the unchecked continuation of Iran’s nuclear program would likely prompt Israel or the US to respond militarily at some point. The risk of a miscalculation leading to a disastrous conflict is very real. Any efforts to delay this outcome should be viewed as diplomatic pragmatism. However, revitalizing the moribund 2015 Iran nuclear deal is, unfortunately, unattainable at present.
When Trump launched his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, he failed to offer a political off-ramp. Iran, in response to the mounting pressure, engaged in provocative actions, including the mobilization of proxies to destabilize and attack its adversaries, as well as an escalation of its nuclear activities. In Tehran, the prevailing belief is that leverage is gained by fueling crises and demonstrating the consequences for its foes. There is no indication that this malign behavior will change.
As expected, Iran hawks in the US are already criticizing the Biden administration for agreeing to unfreeze the $6 billion. Additionally, the prisoner deal is not contingent on the de-escalatory measures and could still collapse. Furthermore, doubts linger regarding the long-term viability of the steps taken to contain the nuclear crisis, even if they are successfully implemented. The underlying challenge of preventing Iran from becoming a threshold nuclear state remains unresolved. Nevertheless, any efforts to de-escalate tensions and reduce the risk of war should be embraced.
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