WASHINGTON – After three weeks without a House speaker, Republicans in the lower chamber united on Wednesday to elect Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., as the new speaker. Johnson, who previously served as the vice chair of the Republican conference and was first elected to Congress in 2016, takes over from former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. McCarthy was removed from his position by a faction of hardline Republicans earlier this month after making compromises with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown.
As Johnson assumes the speakership, his first day on the job will be far from easy. He must bring together lawmakers to avoid a government shutdown scheduled for mid-November, address ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, and unite Republican lawmakers who have been engaged in internal conflicts since the beginning of McCarthy’s tenure as speaker.
Upon being elected speaker, Johnson expressed his commitment to the American people, stating, “We hear you. We understand the challenges you face. We know that there are numerous issues affecting our country, both domestically and internationally, and we are prepared to work tirelessly to find solutions to those problems.”
Let’s examine in detail the challenges that Johnson will face as the new speaker.
1. Avoiding a government shutdown:
One of the most pressing challenges for Johnson is preventing a government shutdown, set to commence on November 17, which would have dire consequences for millions of Americans. A shutdown would result in the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and could disrupt access to Head Start preschool programs and nutrition assistance for low-income families.
To avert this crisis, the House and Senate must pass 12 appropriations bills to maintain the government’s operations. However, prior to the previous October 1 deadline, only a few appropriations bills were approved by both chambers.
“McCarthy faced difficulties securing Republican votes for an appropriations bill that could pass the House. If Johnson is unable to gather enough Republican support, he will need Democratic votes, which will likely require making concessions,” explained David Bateman, a professor of policy and government at Cornell University. “Even if Johnson manages to pass a bill with only Republican votes, it is unlikely to pass the Senate or gain approval from the president. Ultimately, Johnson will need to pass a bill that garners support from the Democrats, at least within the White House or Senate, to avoid a shutdown.”
In a letter to his GOP colleagues, Johnson outlined his plan to avert a shutdown. The plan incorporates a timeline for the remaining spending bills and proposes a temporary funding measure that would sustain the government until either January 15 or April 15.
“McCarthy was able to secure a continuing resolution, but it cost him the speakership,” noted Mark Harkins, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University. “It remains unclear whether the circumstances that led to that scenario have changed.”
2. Providing aid to Ukraine and Israel:
Another challenge facing Johnson is securing support for President Joe Biden’s request for funding to aid Israel in its conflict with Hamas and to assist Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
Johnson has expressed reservations about providing additional aid to Ukraine, as evidenced by his votes against two supplemental appropriations bills last year and in September, which aimed to provide funding for Ukraine.
“American taxpayers have already sent over $100 billion in aid to Ukraine in the past year,” Johnson stated in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, in February. “They deserve to know whether the Ukrainian government is fully transparent and forthcoming about the use of these significant taxpayer resources.”
However, House Democrats have consistently shown strong support for aiding Ukraine. Passing these aid packages will require compromise from all parties involved, according to Harkins.
“Johnson faces the difficult task of striking a balance with Senate Democrats and the White House without losing the majority support within the House,” Harkins added. “There will be intense pressure from a segment of House Republicans to withhold funding from Ukraine. However, that stance contradicts the majority of House members who are in favor of approving the funding.”
Johnson, a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, may also face pressure from Trump, who has been critical of efforts to aid Ukraine.
However, Johnson has shown support for Israel. Following Biden’s recent address to the nation, urging assistance for Israel and Ukraine, Johnson acknowledged the speech on X.
“@JoeBiden’s address to the nation tonight only confirms the urgent need for the U.S. to act in support of our great ally, Israel, as they fight against Hamas terrorists,” he wrote. “We must elect a Speaker so the House can take all necessary action to end Hamas forever.”
3. Uniting Republicans and Democrats:
Tensions between moderate and hardline conservatives within the Republican Party continue to escalate, as demonstrated by the eight Republicans who ousted McCarthy and the subsequent rounds of voting to elect a new nominee for the speakership.
“The question is not if, but when a segment of the Republican caucus will turn against him. Speaker McCarthy was successful in reaching a debt limit deal,” Harkins explained. “However, when he attempted to keep the government open, he lost his speakership. Democrats may be willing to assist, but their demands may be greater than what Speaker Johnson is willing to accommodate.”
Harkins noted that the House is not typically known for bipartisan collaboration and does not anticipate Johnson changing that dynamic.
“He is one of the most conservative speakers we have had in a long time. While his conservative values propelled him into the speakership, they will not make it easy for him to bridge the divide and find compromise with Democrats,” Harkins remarked. “The House Republican Conference did not select Speaker Johnson to work with Democrats. They chose him to fight for conservative causes until the end.”
Dave Rausch, professor of political science at West Texas A&M University, echoed this sentiment. Given Johnson’s history, including voting against certifying the 2020 election results and opposing same-sex marriage, Rausch questioned how many Democrats would be inclined to collaborate.
“Johnson is perhaps facing the most visible tightrope-walk of anyone because he must work with Democrats, but cannot align with them too closely due to his Republican group— a small group that now shares similar views to him,” he said.
Overall, as Rep. Mike Johnson takes on the role of House Speaker, he will confront numerous challenges that demand skillful navigation and compromise. Avoiding a government shutdown, providing aid to Ukraine and Israel, and uniting Republicans and Democrats will undoubtedly test his leadership abilities and determine his effectiveness in the position.
