The president believes that starting with reassurance is the best way to shape Israeli strategy and build trust.
Tomorrow, Joe Biden will embark on a trip to Israel, making him the second American president to visit an active war zone not under his own military control. The first time he did so was in Kyiv last February, during a period of relative peace. This time, however, he will be entering a conflict that is escalating. In a way, he will serve as a temporary deterrent, as striking an American president would be a risk Hezbollah would want to avoid.
Biden’s visit is not just a symbolic gesture of solidarity due to his strong support for Israel. It is a strategic mission, reflecting his psychological approach to foreign policy and his deep understanding of the Israeli psyche gained through numerous visits and relationships with Israeli leaders.
An example of this approach can be seen in May 2021 when Hamas began firing rockets at Israeli cities. Rather than resorting to traditional diplomatic maneuvers, Biden chose to shower Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, also known as Bibi, with friendship. The goal was to build emotional capital and reinforce his belief in Israel’s right to self-defense. Biden then used this trust to guide Netanyahu towards a more prudent course of action.
Biden’s approach is based on an understanding of Israeli anxiety and the country’s need for affirmation and security. Instead of pressuring Israel, he aims to assure them of American friendship during times of peril. By doing so, he can influence Israeli decision-making and help shape their strategy.
During the 11-day conflict in 2021, Biden maintained constant contact with Netanyahu, engaging in Socratic dialogue to understand Israel’s goals and guide their actions. This approach differs from the confrontational stance taken by the Obama administration, which only heightened Israeli insecurities and resistance to pressure from the international community.
Biden’s strategy has already shown success. In 2014, Israel’s war with Hamas lasted 50 days, but in 2021, with Biden’s “Hug Bibi” approach, the conflict was resolved in just 11 days. Biden convinced Netanyahu to bring the attack on Gaza to an end by emphasizing the limitations and risks of continued military action.
During his visit to Tel Aviv, Biden aims to leverage the emotional capital he has built with the Israeli public to influence the coalition government’s actions and address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. By employing his Socratic questioning, he can help clarify Israeli thinking and mitigate the risk of a wider war. This is not just a matter of American interest, but also crucial for potential regional peace and avoiding economic disaster.
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