In 2016, Jenny Richardson made her usual Republican vote for president, a tradition she had followed for decades. She admired Donald Trump’s status as an outsider and his promise to reshape the Supreme Court in favor of social conservatives like herself. However, by 2020, Richardson had grown tired of Trump’s chaotic leadership. She cast her vote for Joe Biden, not because she was thrilled with the Democrat, but because he was not the obstreperous incumbent.
The defection of voters like Richardson in the suburbs of Phoenix had a ripple effect that contributed to Biden’s victory in Arizona, making him only the second Democratic candidate since 1948 to win the state. This political transformation is part of a larger shift in the West, which has seen traditionally Republican strongholds turn into Democratic strongholds over the past two decades.
As I traveled through various states in the region, including California, I discovered some common factors that have contributed to this shift. One of them is the disillusionment of Republicans who find their party too extreme, as well as the influx of Democrats who have brought their political preferences from states like California. Another important factor is the growing Latino population and their increasing political influence. In Arizona, for example, years of harsh immigration policies and Trump’s nativist movement have mobilized Latino voters and shifted their support towards the Democratic Party.
Biden also benefited from the endorsement of Republican Cindy McCain, widow of Senator John McCain, a highly respected figure in Arizona politics. While these factors played a role in Biden’s victory, they do not fully explain the narrow margin by which he won the state. Arizona’s political landscape is diverse, with solidly Democratic cities, staunchly Republican rural areas, and crucial swing suburbs.
Biden’s victory in Arizona underscores the state’s growing competitiveness and its importance as a battleground in future presidential elections. Before Trump, there was Sheriff Joe Arpaio, whose tough stance on immigration and violations of civil rights ultimately cost him his position in 2016. His actions, as well as the passage of controversial immigration laws, sparked a Latino backlash and further pushed them towards the Democratic Party.
The Latino population in Arizona continues to grow, with many young Latinos becoming eligible to vote each year. Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and controversial policies further motivated Latino voters to support Biden. In the 2020 election, Biden won about 60% of the Latino vote in Arizona, while Trump’s support among Latinos increased compared to 2016. However, the overall increase in the Latino electorate helped Biden secure his victory.
Grassroots organizations, such as LUCHA, played a significant role in registering and mobilizing Latino voters in Arizona. Their efforts, including phone banks, door-knocking, and social media campaigns, contributed to Biden’s success in the state. However, it is important to note that demographics alone do not determine election outcomes. Organizing and mobilizing Black, brown, and Indigenous young people also played a crucial role in Biden’s victory in Arizona.
Cindy McCain’s endorsement of Biden was a turning point for many voters. Her late husband, Senator John McCain, was a highly respected figure in Arizona politics, known for his independence and go-it-alone attitude. Trump’s attacks on McCain and his lack of character and integrity led Cindy McCain to cross party lines and endorse Biden.
Overall, Biden’s victory in Arizona reflects the changing political landscape of the state, with growing diversity and a shift in voter preferences. The state’s highly competitive nature makes it a key battleground in future elections.
