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The writer is the author of ‘Untied Kingdom: A Global History of the End of Britain’
In November 1967, a historic by-election in the South Lanarkshire seat of Hamilton propelled Scotland’s independence movement to national prominence. The victory of Scottish National Party’s Winnie Ewing in a traditionally Labour seat marked a turning point. Last week, however, Labour secured a significant swing of 20% by winning the neighbouring constituency of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, potentially impacting the independence cause.
Labour’s recent win has been hailed as a major revival for the party in Scotland. But what will it mean for the future of independence?
This year has been challenging for Scottish nationalists. The departure of Nicola Sturgeon, the former leader and first minister, revealed a lack of leadership depth and contributed to falling membership and discontent within the party.
Despite favorable conditions, the surge in popular support required to win a referendum on independence has not materialized. However, support for independence has remained surprisingly steady, even as some voters switch from the SNP to Labour. It continues to hover around the mid-to-high forties.
This prolonged stalemate bears similarities to situations in other parts of the world where the British hold has gradually diminished. Referendums on retaining ties with Britain have been held in former colonies such as Newfoundland, South Africa, Gibraltar, and Rhodesia, often with inconclusive results.
Transitioning from British sovereignty to new identities in a post-imperial era has proven challenging. Agreement on what should replace British influence has been elusive, with disagreements overshadowing progress.
Other countries, such as Canada and New Zealand, have grappled with similar issues. Canada’s adoption of the maple leaf symbol in 1965 was met with internal strife and resistance. New Zealand’s efforts to determine its future flag design also faced difficulties, with the Union Jack ultimately prevailing in a 2016 referendum.
Australia’s push for republicanism experienced internal divisions, leading to its defeat in a 1999 referendum. The issue remains divided, and a second attempt is yet to gain consensus.
Over the past few decades, nearly a dozen referendums worldwide have tested popular sentiment towards the UK connection. However, the desire to sever ties with British symbols or constitutional arrangements has consistently fallen short.
Scotland is not alone in navigating the complexities of its relationship with Britain. The UK has gradually moved closer to dissolving into its constituent parts. Yet, the question of alternative paths forward remains uncertain, tying Scotland’s fate to a broader phenomenon.
While some may see the recent by-election as a turning point for the embattled union, it is unlikely to provide a definitive resolution. The SNP’s political momentum may be temporarily halted by Labour’s victory. However, the prolonged deadlock over Scotland’s future is likely to persist.
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