TThe self-declared republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, a former autonomous region that broke away from Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union, will cease to exist on New Year’s Day 2024, according to its ethnic Armenian officials. Despite backing from Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh was never officially recognized. Now, all of its institutions will be dissolved.
However, the truth is that Nagorno-Karabakh is already fading away. More than half of its population has fled to Armenia since Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour offensive last week to reclaim full control. As of Thursday morning, 68,000 out of the enclave’s 120,000 ethnic Armenians have left, and many more are expected to follow. Considering that Armenia has only 3 million residents, it will require substantial support to integrate such a large number of refugees.
Although Baku insists that ethnic Armenians are leaving by choice and have nothing to fear, Thomas de Waal, a Caucasus expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues otherwise. He stated, “That is not how bitterly contested ethnic conflicts are fought when armed groups are sent into civilian areas.” Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has referred to it as “a direct act of ethnic cleansing.”
What is evident is that few individuals are willing to take the risk of staying in Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation is exacerbated by a months-long blockade, leaving residents without essential supplies such as food and medicine. Furthermore, the autocratic president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has issued warnings to “bend your necks,” there have been civilian casualties during the military offensive, and Azerbaijan’s troops have been accused of human rights abuses. The historical context includes the shadow of the Armenian genocide in 1915 and a history of ethnic cleansing during the 1990s conflict, in which Azerbaijanis suffered greatly. During the brief but brutal 2020 war, Azerbaijan regained control of significant territories and witnessed crimes such as the decapitation of Armenian civilians.
Presently, Azerbaijan’s words hold little weight. It proceeded with its operation despite promising foreign governments that it would avoid using force, despite clear warnings from the US and other nations that they would not tolerate ethnic cleansing or other atrocities against the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia, Armenia’s treaty ally, brokered the previous ceasefire in 2020 and deployed peacekeeping forces. However, Russia is currently focused on its invasion of Ukraine and disapproves of Armenia’s engagement with the West, including joint military drills with the US. Russia has also been strengthening its relationship with Azerbaijan. The increasing support from Turkey has also emboldened Baku.
The US and other countries are rightly advocating for a UN monitoring mission to have access to the region. If Azerbaijan is not doing anything wrong, it should not object to transparency. With events unfolding rapidly, it is crucial for Washington, the EU, and European governments to ensure accountability for the ongoing situation, possibly through the European Court of Human Rights. European leaders have expressed genuine shock at Azerbaijan’s actions, as they had been developing positive relations. Consequently, they must act accordingly.
Addressing the current crisis is not the only concern; it is also essential to prevent future violence. There are worries about Azerbaijan’s desire to establish a corridor to Nakhchivan, a region separated from the rest of the country, as well as President Aliyev’s recent mention of “western Azerbaijan” in reference to Armenian territory. What unfolds now is critical not only for the ethnic Armenians remaining in Nagorno-Karabakh but also for others in the region.
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