Ever since Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, commentators, policy advisers, and political leaders from the Western world have often mentioned the possibility of nuclear war as a reason to not provide Ukraine with defensive weapons. However, this cautious approach may have unintended consequences and bring us closer to a nuclear catastrophe.
For Ukrainians, the question of whether Russia will target the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP), Europe’s largest, located in southern Ukraine, has always been a matter of “when” rather than “if.” Last week, Ukrainian civilians and officials expressed panic on social media as fears of a potential attack intensified. Russian embassies and Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson started disseminating disinformation, suggesting that Ukraine, which suffered greatly from the Chernobyl disaster, could purposely unleash radioactive terror on its own people.
While these claims are unconvincing, they serve as a chilling reminder of past Kremlin disinformation campaigns following Russian atrocities, such as the Skripal poisonings, the Bucha massacre, the downing of passenger jet MH17, and the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.
The instinct of Ukraine’s allies to reduce the risk of Russia resorting to its nuclear arsenal is certainly understandable, but their tactics are misplaced. The mixed signals from the West regarding its commitment to defend Ukraine have been widely regarded as contributing to Putin’s decision to wage his genocidal war.
Since the invasion began 17 months ago, Putin seems to believe that he has the “strategic patience” to outlast the West and secure victory. And he has some compelling evidence to support this belief. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the US and EU response was underwhelming, consisting mainly of symbolic, yet ineffective, personal sanctions. More recently, the international community’s muted reaction to the Kakhovka dam catastrophe likely reinforced his strategy.
However, in the absence of a clear and coordinated plan to address Russia’s escalating nuclear threats, Western leaders have unwittingly brought us closer to the very nuclear disaster they seek to avoid. Russia possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, a fact it is not shy about proclaiming. A nuclear war would spell the end of civilization as we know it. Even the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, resulting in a smaller explosion, would be a catastrophe for Ukraine. Underestimating this risk would be a grave mistake.
At the same time, it is crucial for Western leaders to consider the consequences of succumbing to Putin’s threats, which are designed to force the world to condone his ruthless attempts to destroy Ukraine. By providing Ukraine with military support to win the war, the West can send a clear message to the Kremlin – and to any other irredentist powers – that nuclear threats will not be effective.
Focusing solely on Russia’s nuclear arsenal distracts us from more immediate threats, such as the alleged presence of explosives around ZNPP. The facility has been under the occupation of Russian armed forces since March 2022, with reports of military personnel and equipment amassed inside. There are also reports that the families of Ukrainian workers at ZNPP have been held hostage in Russia, posing a further danger. Against the backdrop of ongoing Russian war crimes in Ukraine, the fear of a nuclear terrorist act by the Kremlin is far from unwarranted.
The timing and nature of such an act remain uncertain. Some experts speculate that Russia might detonate a small part of the plant, like a cooled reactor, either to showcase its capabilities or to impede the Ukrainian counteroffensive. While this would unlikely result in radiation leakage, there are much riskier scenarios. A more substantial explosion could damage the protective shell of a reactor, spreading radiation over a 350-mile radius and causing a catastrophic disaster.
One could argue that these threats are just another part of Russia’s information warfare, intended to terrorize the Ukrainian population. However, nuclear catastrophe is not something to leave to chance or half-hearted measures. The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has worked diligently under challenging circumstances to ensure the plant’s safety, but it has lost the confidence of many in Ukraine. In its latest inspection, the IAEA declared the plant secure but requested further access to areas where Ukrainian officials claim mines have been planted.
This situation is untenable. It calls for more decisive action to restore nuclear safety and confidence. The most effective approach to demilitarize and de-occupy ZNPP would involve a multilateral task force comprised of trusted parties from all sides, including the US, China, India, the UK, and the EU. This task force could supervise the area around the station with the support and expertise of the IAEA.
Without such concerted efforts, Europe remains vulnerable. World leaders must now confront difficult decisions instead of succumbing to Russian blackmail or ignoring the problem until it becomes a radiating threat to Ukraine and beyond.
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