Ukrainian soldiers had high regard for the fighters from the Wagner Group, considering them the most well-equipped adversaries they had encountered since Russia’s invasion. The soldiers praised their training, sharing stories of aggressive tactics and impressive feats like a sniper taking down a drone with a single shot.
However, the recent mutiny led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, has raised doubts about the group’s future as a fighting force on the battlefield. This uncertainty brings relief to Ukrainian soldiers who see an opportunity to capitalize on the chaos and weakening morale to make gains.
The feud between Prigozhin and the Russian military establishment has created a rift, but its long-term implications remain unclear. The Wagner Group played a significant role in the campaign to capture the eastern city of Bakhmut, securing a fragile alliance with the Russian military. However, once the city was taken, the partnership dissolved.
Rob Lee, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, believes that the previous relationship between Wagner and the Russian government is likely over. Wagner’s role in the war may not have been the same if the feud hadn’t occurred.
Although Wagner forces exhibited improved tactics and overwhelmed Ukrainian defenders during the intense fighting in Bakhmut, it was ultimately a Pyrrhic victory for Prigozhin. The city did not hold much strategic value, and the Russian military had limited interest in it. Adding to the diminished significance of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian military seized high ground, preventing Russia from using the city as a launching pad for further advances.
The events surrounding the capture of Bakhmut and its aftermath seem to have caused the rupture between Prigozhin and Russia’s Defense Ministry. Prigozhin’s forces could only take the city center with the support of the regular army, which Putin ordered to protect Wagner’s troops. However, integrating Wagner into the broader military would have reduced Prigozhin’s power, leading to his dissatisfaction.
Realizing that he would lose control over his forces by signing contracts with the ministry, Prigozhin grew increasingly critical of Russian military units. Intelligence from the US, UK, and Ukraine suggested that he might make an offensive move to force a change in the Defense Ministry, which was proven true when Wagner troops attempted to seize a southern Russian city. The mutiny, however, ended abruptly with Prigozhin accepting exile to Belarus, and the Kremlin announced that Wagner in its current form would cease to exist.
While it is likely that a part of Prigozhin’s mercenary cadre will continue under Russian Army control, it remains uncertain how many Wagner soldiers would be willing to fight under the ministry’s umbrella. Although Ukraine may seek to take advantage of the chaos caused by Prigozhin, there are no immediate defensive gaps to exploit.
Prigozhin’s march did not prompt any Russian units in Ukraine to leave their positions and defend Moscow. The war continued unabated, with Russian forces launching multiple missile strikes across Ukraine.
Wagner has played a crucial role in Russian foreign policy, deployed in countries like Mali, the Central African Republic, and Syria. While the group may be transformed under the Defense Ministry’s control, it is unclear whether the Kremlin will allow it to fade away as an effective fighting force. Moreover, Prigozhin may still have some undisclosed plans up his sleeve.
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