Without the presence of Russia’s most effective fighting force, Putin will have to rely solely on the country’s weakened military.
When the Wagner Group paramilitaries entered Rostov-on-Don, the residents responded with acts of kindness, offering them food and water. In a heartwarming video, a young woman is seen giving crackers to a tired soldier. This gesture exemplifies the humanity and compassion shown towards these soldiers.
However, the future of these soldiers has become even more uncertain. Those who participated in Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed coup will escape prosecution due to their “heroic deeds on the front,” as stated by the Kremlin. The rest of the Wagner paramilitaries who did not participate will be offered contracts by the Russian Defense Ministry. The Wagner Group itself seems to be a casualty of this coup, and it is unlikely that Putin will keep it intact.
In a matter of days, Prigozhin and Putin have accomplished what the Ukrainian military and NATO allies have failed to achieve in 18 months of war. They have removed Russia’s most effective fighting force from the battlefield. The Wagner Group fighters have been involved in conflicts with various adversaries since 2014. However, their power will now be significantly diminished.
Wagner’s strength derived from its experience as a private entity operating separately from the state. The use of mercenaries in war is not a new concept, but it poses long-term political risks. Loyalty to a commander can overshadow loyalty to the cause, creating a mercenary army that may turn against its own nation, as seen in this coup. Putin’s success in Ukraine relied on attrition and political manipulation, but without the Wagner Group, he will have to depend solely on the Russian military, which will increase the political costs of the war for the Russian population.
The costs of war are a concern for all leaders, not just authoritarians. The concept of “boots on the ground” has been a focus for American leaders, aiming to reduce the military’s footprint through special operations forces and mercenaries. However, for democratically elected leaders, the cost of a lost war is usually a lost election, not their lives.
We are currently witnessing a rise in authoritarianism, with leaders disregarding international order and seeking to redraw maps. The situation in Ukraine is not just a regional concern but a global one. It serves as a warning to autocrats like President Xi Jinping of China, who may make decisions regarding Taiwan based on the ease or difficulty faced by Russia in Ukraine. The use of mercenary armies poses an existential threat to authoritarian regimes. Strategists around the world will be reviewing their war plans in light of what has transpired.
However, amidst the political crisis, the war in Ukraine is still ongoing. Ukraine is currently conducting a summer offensive and has regained the strategic initiative. While they may not have retaken significant territories, they have regained control over the war. The strain they put on Prigozhin’s forces has contributed to this rebellion and puts Ukraine back in the driver’s seat in the conflict.
Prigozhin’s coup was a punishment for Putin and Russia, and we must now consider how to capitalize on this success.
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