In the ongoing effort to distance ourselves from the dominating presence of Donald Trump in American politics, there are two distinct groups: normalizers and abnormalizers. The normalizers draw inspiration from economist Luigi Zingales, who compared Trump to Italian populist Silvio Berlusconi and argued that treating him as an ordinary opponent focused on issues rather than his character would be the most effective strategy. On the other hand, the abnormalizers believe that certain forms of abnormality cannot be ignored, as they may lead to tolerating demagogy, lawbreaking, corruption, and authoritarianism. They argue that normalizing a demagogue is both a moral and political mistake.
Trump’s victory in 2016 revealed weaknesses in the abnormalizing strategy, as his opponents failed to defeat him by condemning his actions. Alternatively, Trump’s presidency was more effectively challenged through normalization, as seen in the Democratic victories in the 2018 midterms and Joe Biden’s presidential campaign that emphasized returning to a sense of normalcy. Nevertheless, Biden still incorporated elements of abnormalization in his rhetoric, which helped contain Trump’s support within his 2016 coalition.
The events of January 6th gave the upper hand to the abnormalizers, while other issues like inflation diminished the impact of the normal style of Democratic politics. This led to a 2022 midterm campaign focused on democracy-in-peril arguments rather than policy. However, the success of the abnormalizers opened up an opportunity for normalizers within the Republican Party, with figures like Ron DeSantis criticizing Trump from a pragmatic standpoint. Nonetheless, this dynamic seems to be unraveling as Trump faces increasing indictments and DeSantis struggles on the national stage. The 2024 campaign is now shaping up to be a full-abnormalization campaign.
For someone like DeSantis or another Republican to surpass Trump, a significant faction of GOP voters would need to grow tired of Trump’s public enemy and outlaw image, thus conceding to the establishment’s crusade against him. In the more likely scenario of a Biden-Trump rematch, the remarkable possibility of a campaign run from prison would dominate the narrative. While the state of the economy and other normal factors will still play a role, the sense of abnormality will distort every aspect of partisan debate.
Despite my doubts about the abnormalization strategy, I believe this approach will work in favor of the Democrats. Trump’s poll numbers against Biden may be decent at the moment, but the indictments against him, particularly the classified documents case, seem to make his guilt clear-cut. Additionally, the Jan. 6 indictment will continuously draw national attention to Trump’s gross abuses of power, which proved costly for Trumpist Republicans in 2022.
The fact that the indictments are making it more difficult to challenge Trump as the GOP nominee is unfortunate for anti-Trump conservatives. However, it is a consequence of Trump’s actions, and his supporters have made their choice. Democrats may benefit from both the moral satisfaction of a conviction and the political advantage of defeating a candidate who is a convict.
It is important to acknowledge that my predictions regarding Trump’s political prospects have been incorrect in the past. There is a precedent for an abnormalization strategy leading to prosecution without removing the demagogue from the stage, as seen with Berlusconi in Italy. Despite facing multiple criminal court cases, Berlusconi only received one conviction and was ultimately removed from politics due to old age and death.
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